More on the Internet of Education

Internet of Things (IoT)  is supposed to carry a $ 19 trillion value-at-stake tag over the next decade, says Cisco[1]. That volume of a bill suggests opening up of  opportunities to individuals, households, groups, firms and companies into an economy that is struggling to be born. The frontiers of economics are expanding into  'more of techniques and less of men'  scenario. (Y= f(k,l, t) where Y = output, k = capital, l= labour  and t = technology )

Education's new challenge is that it  must  thrive within this rapidly evolving IoE economy which is machine and connectivity oriented.

Internet of Education (IoEd) should be envisaged as a networked connection of students and teachers, learning and teaching processes, of relevant data and of devices, which are charged and linked by cloud, mobile, social analytics and which is protected by security. The medium of IT would trigger off great changes in the operational technology  of delivery of education. 

IoEd is about using sensors and wireless connectivity to  support educational activities. This connectivity calls for reliability of data and systems, adherence to high standards of professional etiquette, data integrity and to continuous evaluation of performance. IoEd would connect the academic and physical worlds through information technology.  There has to be an established data bank based on the registration, progression, internal processes and the contributory and contextual environment in academic institutions. This will increase the outreach of education, dynamically augment efficiencies, stress on mechanization of academic activities and minimize delivery risk in teaching.

Education has now to move into this internet world to coexist with and exist in the cloud.  Education support professionals (read technical staff) have to evolve a portfolio and an ecosystem of cloud infrastructure and application services that allow teaching  and learning to uniquely and securely coalesce with cloud applications and services which can be used by both faculty and students. Educators have to deliver, using online and offline, on site and off site modes utilizing multiple cloud models. 

Networked connections have to make education accessible, relevant and valuable. There has to be a transformation process from mere information into knowledge. Knowledge has to collectively grow into wisdom and thus constitute the core competence of the educational institutions.

IoEd has to create new capabilities out of the many experiences and learning curves it has earned.   IoEd has to pick up the appropriate middleware platform. There has to be an IoEd Strategy which supports the identification and development of solutions.  Successful business application ensures costing and monetization of each activity.

Miniaturization technology and use of smart wearables add to the effectiveness of IoEd. In M2M (machine to machine) and M2m (Machine to men) connectivity paths, design, applications, measured performance, efficiency parameters, interoperability of devices, drawing up of scenarios, (what - if)   interactive methods are all significant.   Both, hardware and software become collaborative in their effort to deliver academic value.

Educational institutions have to use enterprise planning for new IoEd architectures, standards and protocols which are to build the working ecosystem.   Developers have to harmonize thoughts with educators to develop platforms.  The time to market for application development is short.  New technologies – hardware, software, bandwidth, sensor –have to integrate to make new solutions feasible for the first time.  Education has to   interact and change to fast lanes with computing technology . The economies will come in with the concept of leveraging academic data at micro and macro levels. Educational institutions have to reckon with hardware commoditization, software solution development, connectivity, big data and data analytics. 

   

  

 Note : These strands of thought are a part of the research work being undertaken by the author on the Internet of Education. Copyright of this material vests with the author, Jayaram Nayar. He can be contacted at jaynayar@gmail.com

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[1] The Internet of Everything—A $19 Trillion Opportunity; http://www.cisco.com/web/services/portfolio/consulting-services/documents/consulting-services-capturing-ioe-value-aag.pdf

The Long and the Short of It : The Week Ahead

Source:www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm.

The Long : Prospects  Good 

• The OECD projects that the US will grow by 3.1 percent in 2015  and by 3 percent in 2016, 
• UK is projected to grow at 2.6 percent in 2015 and 2.5 per cent in 2016. 
• Canadian growth is projected at 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2016.
• Japan is projected to grow by 1 percent in 2015 and 1.4 percent in 2016.
• The euro area is projected to grow at a 1.4 percent rate in 2015 and a 2 percent pace in 2016. 
•  major euro area economies. 
• Germany is forecast to grow by 1.7 percent in 2015 and 2.2 percent in 2016, France by 1.1 percent in 2015 and 1.7 percent in 2016, while Italy will see a 0.6 percent growth rate in 2015 and 1.3 percent in 2016. 
• China is expected to grow by about 7 percent annually in both 2015 and 2016.
• India will grow by 7.7 percent in 2015 and 8 percent in 2016.
• Brazil’s economy is expected to shrink by 0.5 percent in 2015 before returning to a 1.2 percent growth rate in 2016.

 The Short : An equity market buy and a Japan buy Week? 

The United States,  the major driving force of global growth, has a decelerated  real GDP growth rate for the January-March quarter. This was  in part, due,  to effects of adverse weather conditions. The Texan floods add to economic impacting of nature further. Inflation is being held in check  by the slow recovery and, also by lower prices of imported goods as also the fall in oil prices. Unless there are clear indicators of a reversal, the Fed will not hike rates any time soon. 

Structural fragilities in Europe seem to persist. Europe may get its act together on the Greek tragedy, but its dithering and dallying policy makers are not so inspiring. A temporary truce is not likely to help and structural reforms seem so far away. France and Italy are still laggards to Germany. European banks seem to be too big to fail but seem arthritic in reactions with the agony of misfeasance.  

Global growth will have to be primarily led mainly by Asian  private demand, with  firm households spending. The Chinese economy remains sluggish against the backdrop of the deceleration in fixed asset investment and continued inventory adjustments. India is still slow on its reforms and its Prime Minister appears to be a lone ranger for infrastructural growth. Dreams to reality is India's challenge. Its central bank might reduce the interest rate this week but this might have already been factored in last week by investors. Further, the transmission mechanism is slow and halting. Its bureaucracy is sluggish and archaic so FDI will be slow and in fits. China  is ahead of India by at least a decade, (although "Comparisons are odious palabra' said Shakespeare). The fact remains that the Indian Government is aware that it has to accelerate growth through infrastructure trigger. 

Commodity exporting economies like Australia are  yet to gain  momentum.Mining firms are likely to cut investment against the backdrop of sluggish  demand. Australia has become so China linked that it is  waiting for the Asian giant to lead. The Australian unemployment rate  is forecast to rise further and wage growth is unlikely to move up, thus affecting purchasing power or saving potential. The official stance seems to be to talk the Aussie dollar down.   

Crude oil prices might  rise a shade on political tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in US (read Texas ) supplies but is likely to be  pulled  back because of the 30 million barrels of oil per day supplies yet to meet equivalent demand. The weaker economies among the oil suppliers  open up their taps  on the sly  to meet internal income demands; so the price of WTI might languish at around $60 per barrel. 

There is little to revive gold - neither inflation nor Asia seems poised to extend a hand. India's ambitious gold deposit scheme might, if it takes off, add in volumes to the supply and might off set any rise in the global  gold demand. India's many temples, if not households,  could  monetize gold. So supply side economics will keep gold prices down for quite some time. 

Europe has been  the epi-center of the global bond-market quake since mid-April. About  $375 billion was wiped off the value of euro-zone-government bonds when prices fell abruptly after rising for several months to record levels. So investors might be hesitant to return to bonds so soon.There are monetary policy excesses at play. Players like the Swedish central bank (Riksbank) face a risk of bond shortages as they intend to enhance market liquidity. Substituting sovereign with mortgage bonds might just about fuel a bubble in the housing market. 

So the short of it is that equity markets might host investors this week despite possible volatility. Japan looks to be the week's favourite economy with some dissipation of the deflation sentiment in view. The tremors off its coast may not have had much of an economic  effect. 

Without any risk or responsibility on the part of the author. 

“We’re in the dark like everybody else on this. We don’t have any information at all, a lot of curiosity.” (Richard Hart, Police Chief , Yorkville)

From the Managerial Zoo -5 Managers in the Days of Internet of Things

The Lion Manager (LM)

Young technocrats may have to work with a number of different types of managers - some supportive, some obsolete. This author tries, in this series,  to portray these   managers in these days of  the digital manager. 

These managers are regal and highly distinctive managers. They are  well groomed and carry themselves with dignity. They are majestic. They carry on their appearances with a flair and a fashion. They stay aloof from others. They are a cut above the others. Treated by subordinates with awe, they do not indulge in small talk. They do not need to play politics. They command respect. They work smarter, activity being interspersed with logical think time. They are strategists. They like tigers,  have a 'pride area' of operations and no other department can interfere in their jurisdiction. They are autonomous managers.  Lion Managers  often expect personal loyalty from among the subordinates. 

Lions like to design effective strategy, policies, plans, standards, processes, tools, and techniques. They take logical decisions on when, and how  to source to external providers. They monitor and align the processes, tools, and techniques. They create value in deliverables. They stress on evidence- data analysis and IT/technology architecture . Under their guidance , there is an effective cycle of information within the organization.

However, these majestic lions  have  unbelievable flaws as they are scavengers; they might eat the kill of others. ( my idol has feet of clay!!!). They might misuse power quietly to their advantage. None dares question the lord of the land. Managers,  are intensely sensitive when it comes to themselves.

(Excerpts from the author's manuscript on the IoT Manager. Copyright vests with  the author) 

From the Managerial Zoo- 4 - Managers in Days of Internet of Things

Young technocrats may have to work with a number of different types of managers - some supportive, some obsolete. This author tries, in this series,  to portray these   managers in these days of  the digital manager. 

Tigers (TM)

Tiger managers have confident notions of themselves. They set themselves on a higher cliff and look down on others- most often 'the prey'.  Leading largely successful but  solitary lives, except for requirements of official communion, these managers are cooped up in offices behind mahogany  type desks in style.

They have their fiefdoms and territorial ranges earmarked. They will combat anyone who enters their fiefdom. They hold on to their principles. Interdepartmental or inter jurisdictional boundaries are drawn up; any encroachment (perceived defence threat)  is guarded against with utmost alacrity.

They are in command and is wary of intrusion. During  presentations, they prance up and down, they snarl and pounce on opponents but with intelligent thought. The TM  manager authentically and assertively,  (roars emphatically triumphant and a lesson for all) finishes off his opponent. This type of a manager permits his cronies (his followers, his disciples) to share his booty. He expects huge bonuses  and gives his department staff good increments too. This type scowls when annoyed, bares their fangs, and  moans when tensed up. They cannot let their anxiety be known to the outside world. They are loners, quietly assertive for themselves. 

What would Tiger Managers like young professionals  to do?

o   Keep positive attitudes

o   Train (business and technical); groom with authenticity

o   Ensure tooling (computers, workstations, etc.)

o   Let others participate in management decisions until it affects them.

o   Seek value in service.

o   Trust colleagues.

o   Respect colleagues

o   Be security conscious.

o   Data privacy assuring.

o   Permits you to be  on flex time as he is result driven

o   Insist on  accountability where possible

o   Lead through example.

  (Excerpts from the author's manuscript on the IoT Manager. Copyright vests with  the author) 

Are European banks weakening? Asian banks are filling in the gap

• According to a McKinsey survey of the 500 largest banks in the world, their ROE averaged 9.9 percent in the first half of 2014, within a whisker of the long-term average of 10 percent.
• Banks in Emerging Asia report average ROE of about 15%.
• Among advanced economies, US and Canadian banks had  ROE of over 9%, 
•  Western European banks: ROE about  2% .
• According to BIS data, between 2008 and 2014, the share of Eurozone banks in international claims on Emerging Asia more than halved to just 15% 
• The share of Asian banks almost doubled to 60%.

From  

Opening address by Mr Ravi Menon, , Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, jointly organised by the MAS and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Singapore, 28 May 2015.

Without any risk or responsibility

Google Now as a Repertoire for Education Internet of Things

“We understand more than 100 million places”. “Not just their physical layout and geometry, but also interesting things like when are they busy, when are they open, and what are you likely to need when you’re there.” Aparna  Chennapragada

Google Now seems a more practicable source to effectivize the Internet of Education than  Brillo and the Weave. Google Now may be useful for educators and students. One could ask it a range of questions. One could  also set reminders, put entries in  calendar, look up  information. So seach and plan. 

The answers to queries would be gleaned  from  Google’s Knowledge Graph, a collection of over one billion entities (sports teams, recipes, gas station locations, and   supplied by information housed in third-party apps—apps you have less and less reason to visit as Google Now smartly investigates and reveals). The Knowledge Graph is Google's system for organizing information about millions of well-known "entities": people, places, and organizations in the real world. Google's algorithms cull out and synthesize information about entities from copious  data sources.  

Google Now also offers games to play. So all in all, it should assist fun filled learning. It should develop into creative and immediate learning.

The opening of more than one application on Google Now should assist anywhere any time learning. You can study at your pace.  

Is this the education connectivity platform that we are waiting for? 

From the Managerial Zoo- 3 - Obsolete Managers in Days of Internet of Things

Young technocrats may have to work with a number of different types of managers who seem redundant in these days of technology driven professionalism. This author tries, in this series,  to portray these  difficult  managers who do not fit in with the youngster's perspective of the digital manager. 

Animal 3 : The Jackal 

The Great Pretender (GP) -  the Pretentious Manger:  The Jackal

He has no illusions. He knows he does not know. He is  totally aware of his limitations. Originally from a great lineage of opportunism, he belongs to an ilk of predators, preying on subordinates while currying favors with superiors. He has to cover up his ignorance. 

This type  is careful not to antagonize anybody in power. He normally tags himself to one big boss. On the sly, he lets it be known or rather, proudly exhibits,  that his boss has failings. Any problems, he whispers (whines) are to be blamed on these failings. In today's context,  professionalism is often substituted by envy. 

It  may be true that he may have been a good student during his youth. He is possibly into difficulties in more recent times as he has not up dated. He seeks accelerated career progression commensurate with his brilliant past not the decadent present. He therefore feels that he needs to be showing off his intensity for the systems and procedures. He is keen to ensure that his systems approach is acknowledged as good if not great. Fact of the matter is, he really does not care for either.  The Internet of Things is another farce for him. But he quotes Sundar Pitchai. 

He excels in pretending to the contrary and indulges in theatrics just to protect his ignorant flanks. He likes to lord over; always attempting to imitate  the boss,  who to him,  is lion. 

You,  as a young professional,  see through him but you can be either helpless or be indifferent, given the organizational context. In desperation, you may have to reluctantly watch this type's howls, barks, growls, whines and cackles; but remember-  none of these make a roar! The jackal manager knows a little about technology and pretends he knows quite a bit. 

A jackal cannot be a lion. So let him be.

Will Brillo Weave an Education Basket?

"Android, polished down… an end-to-end functioning operating system.” Sundar Pichai.

Weave, a communication layer that will enable IoT devices to talk to one another, the cloud, and the  phone.  Weave connects, renders  devices  smarter,  

Will it just help homes or also help education where the multiplier is maximum. ?

America contracts: Is the globe decelerating?

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent

Canada contracted by Real gross domestic product decreased 0.1% in the first quarter, following growth of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014. This was the first negative growth rate of real GDP since the second quarter of 2011. 

On a monthly basis, real GDP by industry fell 0.2% in March.

Final domestic demand fell 0.4% after increasing 0.4% in the previous quarter. 

CPI 0.8 %

Unemployment Rate 6.8 %

Monthly GDP -0.2 %

Source: Statistics Canada

It was a hope that North America is turning around. The N. American news should be a dampener. Week end sell off cannot be ruled out.

Without any risk or responsibility. 

Bloomberg says "Greek Bank Deposits Bleeding Worsens in April"

Bloomberg reports bank bleeding in Greece.

Deposits hit their lowest level since 2004.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-29/greek-bank-deposits-bleeding-worsens-in-april

Without any risk or responsibility.

Economic worries on US Floods

The United States, which is the key force in global growth might see a deceleration in growth this quarter owing to the effect  of adverse weather conditions. Floods have hit Texas and Oklahoma. Household spending – would naturally be affected. There will have to be rebuilding . There have been losses suffered and a $1.4 trillion-a-year Texas economy which is also location of US' main source of energy has incurred losses.  

That is a blow impacting  the US assets and  the dollar, temporary though. 

From the Managerial Zoo- 2 - Obsolete Managers in Days of Internet of Things

Young technocrats may have to work with a number of different types of managers who seem redundant in these days of technology driven professionalism. This author tries, in this series,  to portray these  difficult  managers who do not fit in with the youngster's perspective of the digital manager. 


Animal 2- 

The 'Most Knowledgeable' (MK)  Manager- the Hyena.

Leadership in technology companies is different from other companies. The base of the technology is a techno structure. It needs high level managerial skills to keep this highly qualified flock together. Many managers fail to manage. They 'just boss over'.

The MK manager, the hyena,  believes he is a know all - a 'walking encyclopaedia'. Considers it his right that others admire him. No one within the organization, he believes, can match him in his knowledge or in his sophistication. He is of the firm belief  that he has done great work by the company; long tireless years of exertion. He has seen it all: from the tech bubble to the great recession. He claims he has studied the impact of Internet and web based services. He claims to be the chief contributor to the e commerce strategy of the organization.  Internally, he feels that he is somewhat of an unrecognised talent. He seethes internally. He does not care that cannot foster or retain talent.

Though inwardly, he has contempt for his  superior or peer (forget a subordinate),  MK shrinks at the sound or sight of his boss. If the boss calls, he grabs the telephone in a hurry. If the boss expects him to be on a Google talk at an appointed hour, he is around most day and even evenings  just to show his deferential obedience. His sole intent is to keep his position intact and earn as much money,  by means fair or otherwise,  as he can. He is discreetly ambitious; knows he has frailties but to overcome these he is arrogant to those lower in the hierarchy. He laughs at subordinates as if they were unworthy human beings; treats them even as slaves or as doormats. He seems a colonial master who strongly believes imperialism produces results. 

The hyena accelerates 'official killing'  of any targeted employee so that he can share the kill with the scavenging boss. The latter uses him effectively to obtain information or to hunt people whom he (the boss) is loathe to carry along. The boss lets hyena kill so that he can enjoy the kill. The boss knows the hyena delivers. So he lets him be.

Tactics to beat away the hyena:

Do not just communicate,  make sense of organizations through effective communication. (including prolonged silence to the hyena's laughter)   

Keep on focusing on customer needs. The companythen needs you then more than the hyena.

Hunt on the basis of data; the hyena cannot match you there- he goes by instinct.

Think to a pattern. 

Work to a pattern.

Tread not on the hyena. He might have the support of the big boss.

Concentrate on the team  effort. Remember 3 dogs may beat a hyena.  IT is a collaborative platform.

Develop interpersonal skills to match the hyena's laughter.  

Show depth in knowledge; the MK hyena then knows he cannot trifle with you.

  (Excerpts from the author's manuscript on the IoT Manager. Copyright vests with  the author) 

From the Managerial Zoo-1 - Obsolete Managers in Days of Internet of Things

Young technocrats may have to work with a number of different types of managers who seem redundant in these days of technology driven professionalism. This author tries, in this series,  to portray these  difficult  managers who do not fit in with the youngster's perspective of the digital manager. 

Animal 1: The Porcupine-Dog Cross (PDC) Manager

What happens when you work with a barking, bully manager? He is not so knowledgeable on technology, yet claims he is (MK- most knowledgeable). He has delusions about himself. 

He uses vulgar, hurtful language unbecoming of your expectation of a senior. In his stentorian tone, he lets the world know of his ' virtual, logical' knowledge. He unabashedly states that he is the repertoire of accumulated wisdom. 

Communication  from him , whether it be on the mobile or on Google talk, is  a series of lacerating jabs- . He avoids face to face meetings and takes no explanation. With prickly quills, he tramples on your ego, and your self respect. He dances on your organizational opes in a destructive disregard of your knowledge or of your effort. He bruises you to such an extent that you are rendered   incoherent even as you attend to his phone call.  The bully manager has the temerity to terrorize you through organizational hurt. At heights of his victorious  spear hurling exercises, he lets you know that  'you are good for a golden handshake' but he reiterates that he compassionately does not fire you in these days of recession. He challenges your professional etiquette to the hilt. 

To add to your  commiseration, he sometimes goes public with the brutality of his arrogance. The bully manager is convinced that he is smart. It could well be that he really might be an expert at some relevant area,  which for you is  difficult. .He marks email copies to other colleagues to show them he has cut you to size. Some in the organization applaud him - some loud with envy at your professionalism, others whimpering in whispers. seeking to curry favour with the powerful boss  You  hear all; these negative sounds hurt you even more.  Many of his minions who are self seekers in the office flatter him; (them hangers on) some of your peers look up to him  as a demi-god. That is because he  wields power. 

Think for a moment: he intimidates   because you are   a soft guy who lets him so do. He treats you as 'an exemplary weakling' with whom he can get away. It is possible that you are so subsumed by him that your personality goes in to a shell. You, with a hundred thousand wounds, un-detachable quills on your psyche  are a grievously hurt person. Do not be so upset: remember you are technologically proficient. If you are not, gather your wits and enroll yourself for a higher learning programme on line. It is degrading to be tormented.The bristles hurt all over but be wise to bide your time. It is a great risk to go out into a technologically rapid world where there are not enough jobs. So plan and execute. 

  (Excerpts from the author's manuscript on the IoT Manager. Copyright vests with  the author) 

Skills for the Internet of Things Manager

Current Manager's  Skills	The IoT Manager's Skills
Critical Thinking	Analytic, data driven, mechatronic thinking
Communication	Communicating across Disciplines, Processes and with Machines
Creativity	Collaborative, computational Creativity.
Problem Solving	Problem Sensor
Collaborative	Interdisciplinary Integrative
Leadership	Social Sensitivity
Work Cultural	Cross Cultural ; Clinical
Entrepreneurial	Group Entrepreneurial
Presentation	Social Sensitivity
Planning	Simulation
Human resources	People and Processes (Of Men and Machines)

 Copyright vests with the author. He can be contacted at jaynayar@gmail.com 

- Bank of England's Statement on UK and EU

Statement by the Bank of England

22 May 2015

"Today, information related to planned confidential Bank work on the potential implications of a renegotiation and national referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union made its way into the public domain, due to an internal email sent inadvertently to an external party.

It should not come as a surprise that the Bank is undertaking such work about a stated government policy. There are a range of economic and financial issues that arise in the context of the renegotiation and national referendum.  It is one of the Bank’s responsibilities to assess those that relate to its objectives.

It is not sensible to talk about this work publicly, in advance. But as with work done prior to the Scottish referendum, we will disclose the details of such work at the appropriate time.

While it is unfortunate that this information has entered the public domain in this way, the Bank will maintain this approach."


SOURCE: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2015/052.aspx

Our Comments
1. Bank of England seems to be unable handle nation sensitive data. Can one rely on it to ensure stability of sensitive financial sector?
2. Is the Statement a case of  Not to be believed until denied?
3. The cyclical pattern of UK economy may seem to have more in common with USA than Europe. From the 1990s, UK has never been so comfortable with its  association with European Union.
4. Geo-politically USA  is too crucial for England. 


Markets have something to think about after Greece.

Without risk or responsibility. 

Draghi points to untapped potential in euro area

Introductory speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,

ECB Forum on Central Banking
Sintra, 22 May 2015

Some relevant excerpts

"Labour and product market rigidities contributed to a more painful adjustment process in the stressed economies, which was initially driven more by compression of demand than by a reduction of costs relative to other economies, albeit with differences across countries based on their initial degree of flexibility (Chart 1)... As a result, we now face a situation of significant divergence in unemployment across the euro area (Chart 2).This has direct implications for price stability: slow adjustment has contributed to the protracted disinflation we have witnessed since 2011 and to making inflation expectations more fragile.

Our Comments: Despite ECB's efforts, there are limits to monetary policy. Are we waiting eternally for reforms? 

Without risk or responsibility

Source: European Central Bank Directorate General Communications 
Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany 

"But in the longer run, EMU will not survive unless it also brings prosperity to its members."

Mr. Stanley Fischer, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking conference "Inflation and Unemployment in Europe", Sintra, Portugal, 21 May 2015.

He also  stated : (excerpts only here) 

"Also awaiting the EU are the possibilities of major difficulties associated with the current Greek crisis and, later, with a potential British exit. "

"One can of course imagine many different types of future crises, including crises that could develop out of the worsening geopolitical situation in which the Western world finds itself. "

"That means that the most important challenge of the future will require an increase in productivity growth in Europe - and that is a challenge that faces the entire developed world."

Our Comment:  Coming from the Vice Chair of the Fed, it seems to raise rather than dispel more doubts on the future of Europen monetary union. Straight plain speak on a Europe which appears in disarray. 
Note: The Speaker has stated  that " views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of others at the Board, on the Federal Open Market Committee, or in the Federal Reserve System." 

Without any risk or responsibility

The U.S. economy is slow in the first quarter,

Source: FRB San Francisco 

The Burberry Sale: may be value buy ...

• Burberry is a heritage brand(1856) . 
• Luxury fashion industry is largely demand inelastic. 
• The  upper income echelons buy luxury fashion wear. They attach less significance to price tags and more to brand.  
• Aspirant classes  and the wealthy  are less  price sensitive.  
• The brand represents what is 'imperially modern'. 
• It has a good  presence in the US where the currency is now in an appreciation mode. 

Price editing to off set currency changes may be a good tactic but not a strategic move for a premium brand. (The premium person buys a premium brand at a premium price!) Burberry needs to rethink its marketing, pricing and (currency) risk strategies. 

May be the great fall following the downbeat is a good time to buy.

The sale may be a good time to buy!


This academic advice is without any risk or responsibility.  

Ultimatums to Greece!!!

"A sustainable solution is not possible without substantial reform in Greece.Financial help should be linked to the relevant preconditions." (the Bundesbank in a recent report).

The Truth: 

"Now is the moment of truth, on June 5,"  there is no deal by then that will address the current funding problem, they won't get any money," Greek parliamentary speaker Nikos Filis. "

Achtung Germans! Reforms take time! 

Sell the euro on the rumour, buy on the fact! 

Note: This academic advice is Without any risk or responsibility.

Bank of England's Perspective of the Global Economy

Excerpts from Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 7 and 8 May 2015 released on 20 May 2015

"while there had appeared to be continued upward momentum in euro-area activity, US and Chinese GDP data had been disappointing. Furthermore, several of the global output surveys had weakened in April. A key question was whether this weakness was likely to be temporary or more persistent"

"The recent data flow in Germany had also been a little weaker, suggesting some easing in momentum into the spring."

" oil prices remained around 40% lower than their peak in mid-2014. OPEC production in March had recorded its largest monthly increase since September 2012 and the level of OECD oil inventories remained high, suggesting that the short-term risks to oil prices might remain to the downside."

" the ECB’s asset purchase programme was likely to continue to boost growth. "

'There was also a good chance that the sharp drop in US GDP growth in 2015 Q1 would be temporary and that at least some of the lost output would be recovered in Q2. ...It was also possible that US GDP growth would be revised down in Q1 and that some of the weakness in labour productivity growth would persist."

"Chinese growth had softened and, although the authorities had taken action in response, it was likely that more stimulus would be needed to bring growth back to their target of around 7%. 

"And there remained downside risks to the euro area given the possibility of a disorderly outcome of the Greek debt negotiations"

Source : Bank Of England 

Without risk or responsibility

Rigging Currency Markets: Are fines enough?

There are reports that 5 major banks (JP Morgan, Barclays, Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS) are likely to pay $ 5 billion as fines for rigging forex markets to USA and UK authorities.
Individual accountability should also be fixed as this is tantamount to deception of individual investors.
Owing to this rigging, some one has suffered a loss. Forex is a zero sum game. One man's loss is another man's gain. So profiteering through cheating and deception has a criminal intent.

Can big banks escape merely because they are  too big and powerful enough to negotiate and to arrive at settlements? Justice has to be fair to the small and the large. There is the principle of equity. There is also the principle of accountability for misdemanour by the players both individually and as an institution. There is the doctrine of indoor management  which expects that  the bank is responsible for the action of its individual employees to its customers unless there is collusion between the customer and the bank.

There has been financial misconduct and impropriety. Even provided that there are no individual complaints against the banks, regulators and supervisors have to proceed on public interest against these banks and any other institutions involved. As these banks had large, voluminous share in the markets, they swayed the markets unfairly to the detriment of the individual consumer. This calls for accountability of the dealers, the chief dealers, the back offices risk managers and the foreign exchange managers. There has to be top management owning up managerial moral accountability. As risk limits are set by the Top management, they should have monitored.

The investor would expect that fines can only be part of the proceedings. All those who bought and sold forex during the days of the rigging have a say and are an aggrieved party. It cannot be that if you are a big bank you can pay off fines from earnings and be let off the hook. Justice must travel its course.

Dollar long? Quite a way!

Source: St. Louis Fed

1995-01-04 to 2014-12-10   

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index

Without any risk or responsibility.