Readings: Faculty Activism Education Laggards, Big Data ..

Northwestern orders professor to stay away.



Indian Education- Late by 50 years?


On Student Data Practices


Model Policy' for Handling Student Data

University Rankings- India

Economic Times Reports
Nine of the 10 Indian Universities ranked 700th or above in the Quacquarelli Symonds World University Rankings 2016/17 have lost ground compared to last year in terms of both academic reputation and employer reputation. 

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/54026745.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

India's Universities Low Down

Business Standard reports...

A relatively low number of doctoral students coupled with globally insufficient faculty-student ratio have resulted in the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bangalore, along with six of seven top-ranked Indian Institutes of Technology(IITs), slip in the 13th edition of the QS World University Rankings 2016-17.

Business Standard Report

Case Study of a Smart Campus project (The Indian Institute of Science- IISc)

The Indian Institute of Science is developing an open, integrated and extensible Internet of Things (IoT) technology stack for Smart Management of campus utilities.

The IoT stack brings together:

hybrid sensing with physical and crowd-sourced sensors,

diverse networking technologies,

Big Data Analytics platforms,

Sensor driven utility management.

The project is  a "laboratory" to test and validate IoT research and technologies for India.

About 30 buildings on campus fitted with IoT networking and water sensors.Intelligent water management to take over for a sustainable campus environment.This will document water arrangements,   patterns in buildings and labsReduce wastage due to leakages (“drips”)Ensure quality & maintenance of waterMonitor quality of water on tanks and outletsAlert users on potential quality issuesCrowdsource to report maintenance issues 

IoT connects large numbers of sensors through the Internet

Allows sensing and data collection in real-time

Creates a feed-back loop,

IoT stack contains:

Sensors: Physical and Crowd-sourced sensors using Android App

Wireless Network: On the field to connect sensors with IISc LAN

Big Data Platform: Collect, store & analyse large data in real-time

Analytics: Algorithms for smart management decisions  

IoT applications are data intensive. 

Big Data platforms support such applications

Data arrives at high velocity from sensors

Applications obtain large volumes over time

Apache Storm ensures fast data processing

Hadoop/HBase for large data storage & query

Intelligent use of Edge Devices & Clouds

Reduce B/W, Improve privacy.

Source http://smartx.cds.iisc.ac.in/

(Stack refers to the layers (TCP, IP, and sometimes others) through which all data passes at both client and server ends of a data exchange. TCP/IP (Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol) is the basic communication language or protocol of the Internet.)

(Apache Storm is a free and open source distributed realtime computation system. Storm makes it easy to reliably process unbounded streams of data, doing for realtime processing )

(Data ingestion is bringing data into your system, so the system can start acting upon it.)

India: A Case Study- What ails its education ?

“Incredible India” swears by rich traditions and a historic legacy in education. Its myriad temples and forts are reflective of the great engineering education and reflective skills practised in the past. (Thanjavur Temple, Taj Mahal, Red Fort are all architectural marvels). Under monarchs and the imperialists,

Indians performed feats which made the world watch in some degree of awe (the Wonder that was India, as A L Bhasham would name it). Chinese travelers came to study in East India's Universities. However, over centuries, India seems to have lost the advantage. It has become a willing follower in education ceding positions to the new world. 

It reportedly is ranked 92 among 145 countries in education (http://www.prosperity.com/#!/) 

India’s rankings were rather low:

Prosperity                          99

Economy                           61

Entrepreneurship               94

Governance                       53

Health                               107

Safety                                114

Personal Freedom               79

Social Capital                   129

India is a young nation with more than 62% of its population in the working age group (15-59 years), and more than 54% of its total population below 25 years of age. The average age of the population in India by 2020 is estimated at 29 years as against 40 years in USA, 46 years in Europe and 47 years in Japan. 

However, of the workforce, only 4.69% has undergone formal skill training as compared to 68% in UK, 75% in Germany, 52% in USA, 80% in Japan and 96% in South Korea. 

Why the coming nervous week is not so reassuring:...

• Non-performing loans of banks are high or under-estimated in China, India, and Europe.
• Bank profitability will be consequentially affected.
• Losses and provision requirements would make holes in bank capital.
• Banks have to be further  capitalized as per regulatory norms.
• To facilitate stronger balance sheets, capital induction has to ensue.
• New investors will hold off in crashing equity markets and if Governments have to support as in the case of India, Government funding will hit Government's fiscal position; neutralizing moves towards fiscal  balancing.
• Bank businesses will improve but quite slowly even as banks struggle to redraft (clean up) balance sheets. Business growth, consequentially, will be halting, gradual and slow. There will be significant impacting on business and there will be differential impacting with many small businesses affected. Uncertainties will accelerate the market turmoil.
• The Chinese and Indian economic expansion represent how there is a debt overhang.   The strong asset price growth seems to wind up to a bubble. There has been apparent overinvestment in sectors like real estate. As growth decelerates, all these further credit excesses will expose banks anew and the business failures will accelerate the economies' downward moves. Leveraging will enhance risks. There will be adverse selection too as banks struggle to regain profitability.  
• Political risks will accentuate in Turkey and the Middle East. Commodity prices affect Gulf Cooperation countries, Australia, South Africa, Indonesia and Russia. Brazil and other Latam countries too look vulnerable.  
• Thus,  there is expectation of volatility global markets, in equities , foreign exchange and commodity prices. There should be widening in risk spreads as bank , corporate and emerging markets  are downgraded by rating agencies.   

 Volatility is the spice of a trader's losses.

This blog recommends no investment. All views expressed are without any risk or responsibility.
 

Blood in the financial streets...

Pablo Neruda wrote on the Spanish Civil War...
"Come and see the blood

In the streets! "

Coming events cast their shadow long before...

When the banks heaved, we should have sighed at what was coming.

Is it over? 

Not as yet. The agony is not as yet abated. 

If the Chinese bamboos turn dry and wilt, them trader animals have nowhere to hide. 

If the Bank of Japan  seeks out negative interest rates; why can't we be pessimistic? 

Quarterly results of Indian  banks are so frustrating , but then there is yet another quarter to go....

The bears have  golden swords...  

The sidelines are the best places to be there...

This blog recommends no investment. These views are expressed without any risk or responsibility. 

Flight to quality : : The Wealthy search for parking...

As the Chinese let the yuan adrift, currencies fall in fear. In the flight to safety, gold appears to be rising. This may be a temporary safe haven avenue but is not logical to expect to be bullish on gold in the wake of a global slowdown triggered by China, among the world's biggest buyers of gold. Purchasing power of the wealthy, the  Gulf upper income groups  and  use of industrial gold both stand curtailed and so one cannot bet on gold except as an immediate reaction. Chinese and Indian consumers are likely to continue to buy gold for social reasons, but sustaining gold prices seem difficult. If one buys gold in difficult days, one has to cut consumption elsewhere. So gold will be a temporary rise.

A better bet for eventual wealth accretion may be the Yen as the base of the Japanese economy seems sound technically. Similarly, the property market in Australia may be a good bet to park. The Chinese will eventually return to Australia. Australia is a resource based economy and a vast continent. Given the falling Aussie ( and with current account deficit threatening to widen, given the fall in commodity prices) it might be a good value for money proposition.

Hong Kong and Singapore look a difficult terrain as they are strongly dovetailed to China. Europe has to sort out its political and economic concerns. The Swiss policy do not welcome more.

US assets stay on top. Brace for one more currency run!


This blog recommends no investment. All views are expressed without any risk or responsibility. 

Winter in markets...

'Freezing in Fear' Factors:

• Chinese growth slippage.
• Slide in the yuan.
• Japanese recessionary inclination, coupled with strengthening yen - which is seen as a safe haven. 
• Australian commodity price falls.
• North Korean atomic exploits.
• China vs Vietnam.
• Gulf affected by downhill oil prices.
• Europe's economic problems seem to linger.
• Political disunity in Europe. The burden on Germany and France owing to geopolitical tensions. 
• Post 2011 chaos in the Middle East.
• An imperious Russia seeking to reassert.
• Saudi Arabia versus Iran. Sectarian divisions on religious lines. 
• A slow moving India where internal dissensions hold up governance and reforms.
• Volatility in the markets. (Cause and effect)
• Stress in the financial sector.
• Services industry slowdown owing to geopolitical moves. 
• Appreciation of the dollar and a global slowdown might affect USA. 

The views expressed are without any risk or responsibility.

Dollar might strengthen

Tensions add to flight to dollar. With Saudi Arabia snapping ties with Iran and with US there is anxiety at turn of events on the geopolitical front. The Middle East, at least at the sub terrain level, seeks some conflagration so that oil prices are increased a shade. Any violence,  might instead , add to dollar strengths more  . Oil  may pick up but not so significantly unless there are clearer signs of supply shortages, which is highly unlikely as of now.

Thus, the USD may not have peaked as yet.. Any small move up in oil prices is good for neutral countries like Qatar, Oman and UAE among the GCC countries.  Indo-Pak uncertainties show that economic factors may be a consequence of geo- political tensions.. In a more refined world, economic requirements should destress political tensions but  that seems faraway.

Commodity prices might look up a shade but the turn of events seem good for US stocks. Indian corporates are going to see input and import costs a trifling more ; so the Indian  stock market should be under some pressure.


This blog recommends no investment. Views expressed are without any risk or responsibility.  

Best of Marketing Brands 2015 : Modi & Yellen

Brand Modi  : Micro Modi makes a Macro India campaign.

Modi made the India campaign look aspirational. The Chinese and the Japanese compete to invest. He dashed from Melbourne to London to  Silcon Valley trying to sell 'Product India', repackaging a hitherto sloth brand.  He made IMF sit up and take notice of India being a ray of hope in a declining global scenario.    He built bridges with all leading economies and Africa. He had FDI come in.

He brought need for modernism to the fore with ideas like digital India and bullet trains. He established a direct contact with the youth and old alike through his social media and radio communication.  He borrowed tried concepts  and reworked them successfully(radio , forays to neighborhood).  He made the average Indian feel that development is more important than caste and religion and that it should be above partisan politics. He managed to  get the  focus shift from narrow sectarianism to one on development. He emphasized on revitalizing gestation lagged projects, harnessing skills and digitalizing India. He blended the old and the new in his Clean India Campaign. His make in India harped on quality and attempted to veer consumers away from a distrust of local manufacturers. His financial inclusion campaign earned quite a bit of low cost deposits for banks. He did the unconventional marketing tactic in diplomacy by having breakfast in Kabul, lunch in Lahore and dinner in Delhi . Scandals galore but none seemed to inhibit him.  

Only time will tell whether his efforts succeed but he has captured some minds at home and abroad and carved out a niche brand for hitherto sluggish India.

Brand Yellen:Subtly  assertive: Why Yellen is the best Central Banker

She displayed she was in command yet she was market oriented. The Fed chief ascribed market research to the heart of her policy deliverables. There was market evidence in everything she did. She evened out volatility over the year and was successful  in a quiet year end hike. She raised expectations of her Fed brand; then displayed rare risk mitigation skills. There was no tumult in the market, and there was all round relief to the customer. She made us feel at home.She made emerging economies feel guilty that she had given such a long lead time. She reinforced the Fed brand. There was repeated recall. 

Model for quiet efficiency. 

Darkness at Noon: The Case of India's falling Growth Rate

According to the Government of India, the Indian economy is likely to grow by 7-7.5 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2016, much lower than an 8.1-8.5 percent growth estimated earlier.

India has everything: natural resources of a satisfactory order, a burgeoning, educated middle class, a teeming population which is both a wage lowering workforce and an opportunity for a market, constitution bestowed democracy, a free press, some standards in education, legacy of  commercial English, active stock markets and a bevy of regulators who make repetitive speeches in some of the most fashionable jargon. Yet it has had to scale down growth. amidst all bravado of being an economic powerhouse, and confess to a slower than anticipated growth rate.  

What is lacking in Asia's third largest economy?

Narayanamurthy, founder of Infosys,  pointed to the Indian weakness of speaking more than due. Good speeches do not translate to actions unless there are key performance indicators for all decision takers. India's politicians, bureaucrats and managers love to hear their own voices but do not take accountability. Long speeches, often repetitive but hesitant in action seem to be an effort at getting into the annals of history. Regulators are good examples. One will find variants of speeches on non performing assets from the banking supervisor but the scourge of NPA continues, unabated, a python swallowing up advances at a rapid pace. Stressed assets are at double figures. Meetings are held, long evasive notes are recorded. Meetings seem to be the key to any problem to bureaucrats and bankers; and Committees are at the call of the establishment.   Retired personnel continue to hold key positions or chair committees post- 60 on a variety of Committees enjoying privileges at the cost of the unemployed and the economically depressed. 

The British left India geographically divided; but Indians scar themselves in self inflicted sociological distances that  have them collectively and separately adrift. From caste to tribe to religion, Indians have it all within their masochism driven psyche: differentiators of another retrogressive type. The lunacy of the past seems to come back in violent fits. Development   needs collective and consensual support. Perched at different levels, Indian intelligentsia arrogates solutions and aggravate the prevalent confusions and tensions. The insincere tyranny of the lucky few seem to hold  back development.

Democracy substituted one provincial chief for several self seeking and mutually mongering chieftains donning the garb of servant politicians. Each one is driven by a primeval garnering effort and has a tribal, primitive constituency.  The insensate bickering over petty fiefdoms and rental properties hold up important legislations that are crucial for growth. Even the IMF Chief says these legislations might help.  The politicians, however,  will not heed. National interests are relegated in blatant animal instincts for self preservation.

Since the 1970s, leaders seek financial inclusion in diverse terminologies (lead bank scheme, priority sector lending, differential lending etc) and banks seek one scheme after another yet there are usurious interest rates. Newspapers publish that Rs. 5,000 loans become  Rs. 100,000 in just one year in the South East Indian state of Andhra. Women who are defaulters are reportedly sexually  harassed in this East Indian state. Shadow banking exists with money-lenders extracting 20-30 per cent per annum and often at even higher rates. This is even as the Prime Minister's 'Jan Dhan Yojana' a successful scheme for financial inclusion has mobilised Rs.25000 crores ( 100 crores= 1 billion) in about one year. However banks, filled with white collar intelligentsia and civil administrators of state government who lord over almost everything crowd out efficiency. The financially weak of every social strata  are exploited by  shadow bankers. The regulators come after the event.  Regulators sneak their way in to the director boards of banks. Credit from the formal sector seems to have dried up with banks insistent on Cibil credit scores. As there are reportedly millions of defaulters, micro-finance institutions also are constrained to look away.  The credit culture is rampantly and demonstratively weak. The total stressed assets (i.e., NPAs plus Restructured Assets) as on March 2015 were 11.06 per cent of gross advances and this is mostly with the organized sector. The informal poor continue to wait for a trickledown theory that seems to refuse to come calling by.

So India needs some soul search; not just blame global weaknesses or rains. It is, as M J Akbar said several decades ago a 'siege within'. 

This blog expresses views without any risk or responsibility 

Dollar's rise: A case study of India's borrowings abroad.

In a rather intriguing manner the emerging markets reacted to the Fed hike in unusually happy terms. Take the case of Mumbai Stock Exchange ; it rose on day after  the happy tidings of an anticipated Fed rate hike. The market seemed exuberant despite  the exodus of several preceding days to rise by a whopping 309 points on the news of this rate hike!.  The dollar's rise and the interest rate rise both should be of concern to India; but this was disregarded by some buyers.

Government statistics show that US dollar denominated debt accounted for 60.1 per cent of India’s total external debt at end-September 2014. As on that date,  India’s external debt stock stood at US$ 455.9 billion, recording an increase of US$ 13.7 billion (3.1 per cent) over the level at end-March 2014. The rise in external debt during the period was due to long-term external debt particularly commercial borrowings and NRI deposits. As  at end-June 2015 India’s external debt at end-June 2015 was placed at US$ 482.9 billion. 

The US dollar denominated debt continued to be the largest component of India’s external debt with a share of 58.1 per cent at end-June 2015, followed by Indian rupee (28.4 per cent), SDR (5.9 per cent), Japanese Yen (3.9 per cent) and Euro (2.3 per cent). Of this commercial borrowings were significant as below:

	Due 1 Year	2 years	2-3	More than 3	Total $ Billion
Commercial Borrowings	33.2	29.2	26.3	100.5	189.2

Source: RBI

Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total External Debt 73.7

Is there some irrationality in exuberance of the emerging markets, post Fed hike? 

This blog recommends no investment or divestment. Views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility.

Where are you when the Fed hikes rates?

With a 75 percent chance of a rate hike by the Fed, let us have a look at the environment and the probable implications:

• ·         Oil glut  (plus for emerging economies who are importers); Short sell?
• ·         Gold Fall (should positively impact on current account of gold importers like China and India) Short Sell? 
• ·         Commodity price falls should reduce input costs of emerging economies but harm resource based economies
• ·         Emerging markets (already deserted by the FIIs)  will fall a trifling more as the last of the doubters leave for New York.
• ·         Emerging markets' corporates could have their borrowing costs high if they have resorted to dollar funding. The appreciation in the dollar could see corporates struggling to pay back.
• ·         Chinese growth rate may continue to be under pressure in a inevitable deceleration accentuated by a lack of transparency.   
• ·         India's growth rate will be under pressure from its combat loving and 'bickering petty' politicians who cannot have any consensus on reforms which need legislative sanction;
• ·         India's financial sector will start feeling the impact of latent non - performing assets which are in filibustering pipeline-  stressed assets, restructured assets. Its regulators are slow and far behind a runaway sector.
• ·         Japan may be attempting to return to growth but the tendency to revert to recession is so strong that the Japanese industry has to hollow out to other emerging economies such as India. ( bullet train diplomacy)
• ·         Natural resource endowed countries from Saudi Arabia to Australia will have to borrow at higher costs abroad. Commodity prices will look further south. 

So it looks good to buy safely in to advanced countries' assets  and the dollar. May be the Japanese Yen and Great British Pound may seem to be a parking slot for euro sceptics.  

This blog recommends no investment. All views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility. 

Are Indian banks camouflaging NPA ?Case Study 7

Canara Bank highlight of Q2- 2015-16

Rs Crores

Gross NPA	14021
Gross NPA Ratio (%)	4.27
Net NPA	9383
Net NPA Ratio (%)	2.90
Write Off (Including Addn Prudential Writeoff)	1969
Total Restructured	29026
Std in restructured	22891
NPA in restructured	6135
% of Total Restructured Assets to total Adv	8.83

http://www.canarabank.com/Upload/English/PressReleases/PERFORMANCE_HIGHLIGHTS_SEP_2015.pdf

This blog recommends no investment or divestment. Views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility.

Are Indian banks camouflaging NPA ? Private sector Banks -Case Study 6

Federal Bank Rs. Crores

	30.09.2015	30.06.2015	30.09.2014	30.09.2015
Gross NPA	1498.73	1304.58	1031.05	1498.73
Net NPA	674.84	48,4.47	318.50	674.84
% of Gross NPA	2.59	2.90	2.10	2.90
% of Net NPA	0.98	1.33	0.66	1.33

  

Restructured Advance  Rs Crores	2888	2763
Standard	2445	2456
NPA	444	307
% of Restructured Advance	5.58	5.62

http://www.federalbank.co.in/documents/10180/5777664/Investor+Presentation-Q2-FY16/9d210919-8d8e-4582-bd45-97762dd3e8f3

http://www.federalbank.co.in/financial-result

This blog recommends no investment or divestment. Views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility.

Are Indian banks camouflaging NPA ? Private sector Banks - Are they followers of Public Sector ? Case Study 5

South Indian Bank : NPA & Restructured Advances
Rs Crs	Q2 - FY16	Q2- FY15	Y-o-Y
GNPA	892.25	553.18	61.30%
NNPA	549.56	318.43	72.58%

               

Restructured Advances

Opening Balance	Add	Increase Bal	Upgrades	Decline Bal	30.09
2170	95	69	0	21	2313

NPA Rs Crores Restructured: Rs 313 crores  restructured

Other restructured : Rs.2000 crores

Source: https://southindianbank.com/UserFiles/file/Rupay/Results/SIB_Investor%20Presentation_October%202015.pdf

Investor Presentation October - 2015

This blog recommends no investment or divestment. Views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility.

Are Indian banks camouflaging NPA ? Case Study 4

Punjab National Bank Position as on 30 September 2015

	Standard Adv. (Excl. Std. Restructured) *	Restructured Standard (O/S) Cumulative (As on 30/09/15)	NPA	Gross Advances
FY 2014-15	329358	37369	25695	392422
Sep’15 (HY)	328903	38261	24945	392110

*This includes restructured NPA amounting to Rs. 3612 cr. as on Sep’15

Punjab National Bank Position as on 30 September 2015
	Sep’14	Mar'15	Sep’15
NPA as at the beginning of Yr	18880	18880	25695
Fresh Addition	6574	16660	5995
Gross NPA%	5.65%	6.55%	6.36%
Net NPA%	3.26%	4.06%	3.99%

http://pnbindia.in/new/Upload/English/Financials/PDFs/Investor_ppt_Sept15.pdf

This blog recommends no investment or divestment. Views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility. 

Listless December

Except for the Fed news there is not much that December can offer. As traders prepare to go home for December holidays, it would be square positions that they  would like to have. The real impact of a crisis as and when the Fed rises rates will be on emerging economy currencies and that will be one time fall on that date as the market has already factored in such a fall. All that remains to sell would be  the last hopefuls; others may have or would have rationally  planned their exits.

The fall on Mumbai Stock Exchange is on expected lines: there is nothing great about the Indian economy with the bickering politicians holding up reforms. India may try but cannot seem to go beyond its 7 to 7.5  % growth rate despite all the macho talk. Its banks seem to be  in a bad shape and market is giving up hope on the ability of banks to cope with stressed assets. India's  biggest metro in the South Chennai has been a flood wash out and it is only the private sector that seems to be  of utility. The administrative services are nowhere to be seen,  forget felt. If this is the type of 'governance efficiency' that one displays, FIIs will and should sell. Speeches do not substitute  for diligent hard work. India's leaders have to realize that it is looking south !!!

Time to hold on to one's dollars.  With oil plunging, commodity markets will drag down.

Views expressed are without any risk or responsibility. This blog recommends no investment.