Friday, January 30, 2015

Greek and Latin: A disturbing weekend.....

The new left leaning Government in Greece   says it will not discuss with IMF/ECB/EU troika but will re-negotiate debt with eurozone leaders only. With unemployment of youth touching nearly 50 % and debt touching 175% of GDP, there is room for a lot of worry if stances are hardened.

Withour any risk or responsibility


Danish Interest Rates


Source:http://www.nationalbanken.dk




Without any risk or responsibility

Denmark suspends bond issuance:


'Press Release by the Danish National Bank.'

"Upon the recommendation of Danmarks Nationalbank, the Ministry of Finance has decided to suspend the issuance of domestic and foreign bonds until further notice.
The large surplus on the government finances in 2014 implies that the sale of government bonds has been greater than the funding requirement. Given the foreign currency situation, it is no longer appropriate to reduce the issuance of government bonds over several years. The balance on the central government's account at Danmarks Nationalbank is more than sufficient to cover the financing requirement in 2015.
Danmarks Nationalbank has purchased foreign exchange in the market and reduced the monetary-policy interest rates. This has resulted in a widening of the negative spread between money market rates in Denmark and the euro area. The interest rate spreads for government bonds, however, have remained positive in the longer maturity segments.
Danmarks Nationalbank expects that stopping the issuance of government bonds will contribute to reducing the interest-rate spreads in the longer maturity segments and thereby limit the inflow of foreign exchange.
Enquiries can be directed to Karsten Biltoft on tel. +45 3363 6021."

Source:http://www.nationalbanken.dk/en/pressroom/Pages/2015/01/DNN201521749.aspx

Without any risk or responsibility


Denmark cuts rate yesterday to - 0. 5 %

reportedly suspends sovereign bond issuance?




Without any risk and responsibility...

Greece:discussions will take place between Greece and the European governments.

Interview with Mr Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, in Europe 1, conducted by Mr Jean-Pierre Elkabbach on 26 January 2015 published on
28 Jan 2015 reveals that the total  debt of Greece is €320 billion;   of this €40 billion  Greece owes to France  owed to the French taxpayers and to the Germans  around €60 billion: ( in outstanding loans, or debt securities.)   


"If (Greece)  does not pay, it constitutes a default and, as such, is in breach of the rules .."

Without any risk or responsibility 

No reason to worry over USA economy

USA Gross domestic product expanded in the last quarter of 2014 at a 2.6 percent annual pace after the third quarter's  5 percent rate.   The imputation of slower growth may not be substantiated by longer term trends:
'Labor markets are doing well. Employers added jobs at an average rate of 229,000 per month in the first 10 months of 2014, which is 18 percent higher than the rate in 2013,   This acceleration in job growth brought the unemployment rate down to 5.8 percent as of October 2013, compared with 7.2 percent one year ago.
Falling energy prices have improved consumer balance sheets . USA households are gradually regaining wealth they lost during the financial crisis.  
November 2014 reading from the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated strong growth in manufacturing activity.   The index had then been positive for nearly 18 consecutive months, with the only aberration in February 2014 during the depths of our severe winter weather.[1]

Measure called U6, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part time for economic reasons, has fallen from its peak of 17.2 percent to 11.5 percent.
The personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, the measure of inflation preferred by the FOMC, registered a 1.4 percent increase over the 12 months through October.
It remains above the level that should stoke concerns of sustained deflation.
The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is a bit higher than the overall measure, increasing 1.6 percent over the 12 months through October.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, advanced at a 4.3 percent pace in the fourth quarter - the fastest since the first quarter of 2006 and an acceleration from the third quarter's 3.2 percent pace.'

 (Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Charts could be seen at
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/)
Views expressed without any risk or responsibility.



[1] Data from the speech of Mr Charles I Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, to the Charlotte Economics Club, Charlotte, North Carolina, 3 December 2014.


Thursday, January 29, 2015

USA jobless results reinforce growth momentum.

Jobless claims falling to 15 year low show a resurgent USA. It also shows that US interest rates look set to rise earlier than anticipation as a bullish economy will be chased by prices.  The 'patience' of the Fed will be tested.

Views expressed without risk or responsibility. 

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Chinese Stocks are dropping 3rd day...

Probable weaknesses in governance and internal audit issues seem to add to the woes of slow growth.

Asian stocks seem to stumble today ... with the US growth seemingly firm on track, and the possible flight to safety, Asia has to wait and watch. 

The Fed has been receptive to market conditions...

Press Release by the Fed

Release Date: January 28, 2015

For immediate release




Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.  Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate.  On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish.  Household spending is rising moderately; recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power.  Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow.  Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices.  Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined substantially in recent months; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.  The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.  The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.  Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.  The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.  In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.  This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.  Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.  However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.  Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.  This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.  The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Cornering the House Rich Cash Poor Greeks!

The Germans warn the cash poor Greek civilization on how they should conduct themselves in financial matters.

Greeks are aware that populism is no substitute for hard cash. However, populism matters in democracy. Democratic credentials do not necessarily make great economic agenda. Rehiring cleaners at the cost of consultants appeals to the masses.

The Germans make it clear that it was unfair of Greece to expect the others to pick up their inefficiencies. Adding insult to injury with such  taunts, are statements that there cannot be 'haircuts' a pseudonym for debt reduction. The outgoing Greek finance minister has warned of the 'ides of march'.

If you are broke, what can you do? Sit and tensely watch creditors' movements. There is nothing much creditors can do when nations default. There is history to read in the Less Developed countries debt of 1980s!

Hard posturing against the debtor may not help market economics. Europe is fragile and a reluctance to re-negotiate is driving a complex ridden Greek Government to a corner. There is need for wisdom now. But then wisdom is a latecomer.

S&P has revised the outlook on Greece’s B rating to credit watch negative, from stable. 
Greece with its rich history stains the economics of European Union. Do we bide time or go the indifferent path?

European Union is wobbly if not murkier!


Views expressed without any risk or responsibility!

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Oil to get hit further?

1. Bloomberg reports that  the US administration is to drill off shore.
"Obama Plans Offshore Oil Drilling From Virginia to Georgia"



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-27/obama-proposes-offshore-oil-drilling-from-virginia-to-georgia


2. Saudi Arabia has again refused to intervene in curtailing production.

3. Singapore deflation fears reflect market dread of coming asset fall.


Views expressed without any responsibility or risk.  

The Guardian's thought provoking Article : A Strong dollar threatens a debt crisis in SSA

"Strong dollar threatens debt crisis in sub-Saharan Africa

By Angela Monaghan" 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/28/strong-dollar-threatens-sub-saharan-africa-debt-crisis

Why Singapore Dollar might be under pressure:

 Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) says :
"Over the last three months, the S$NEER has generally fluctuated around the middle of the policy band. The depreciation of the S$ against the broad-based strength of the US dollar was partly offset by the appreciation of the S$ against the Malaysian ringgit, euro, and Japanese yen. Thus, movements in the S$NEER have been relatively muted compared to bilateral S$ movements against the major currencies. The three-month S$ SIBOR increased slightly from 0.41% at end-September 2014 to 0.46% at end-December. It rose further to 0.65% in mid-January 2015, and has since stayed at around this level.  "


1.      Singapore economy grew  only  by 1.6% in Q4 2014 on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, or about half the pace of expansion in Q3.

2.      The Monetary Authority of Singapore's 2015 growth forecast for the Singapore economy at 2–4% looks a little difficult to achieve given the  state of the world economy.  

3.      The fall in global oil prices.

4.      MAS Core Inflation moderated to 1.6% y-o-y in Q4 2014 from 2.1% in Q3, while CPI-All Items inflation fell to -0.1% from 0.9%.  

5.      Rentals will fall against oversupply in the housing market.    
6.      CPI-All Items inflation is now projected by MAS at -0.5–0.5%, from the 0.5–1.5% expected in October.  MAS Core Inflation is expected to be 0.5–1.5% this year, down from the earlier forecast range of 2–3% .

7.      MAS has said it will continue with the policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band.  However, the slope of the policy band will be reduced, with no change to its width and the level at which it is centred.  This measured adjustment to the policy stance is consistent with the more benign inflation outlook in 2015 and appropriate for ensuring medium-term price stability in the economy.  

Reading:  MAS Monetary Policy Stt. 28 January 2015. http://www.mas.gov.sg/news-and-publications/speeches-and-monetary-policy-statements/2015/monetary-policy-statement-28jan15.aspx

Views Expressed without Any Risk or Responsibility.



Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie set to decline?

Given that resource rich economies are not doing too well (an offshoot of persistent fall in commodity prices), the three currencies are likely to fall. Given that Europe is still wobbly,  euro could be added to the list. The QE   together with the Greek results add to indications of sustained euro weaknesses.

As China  is not as fast in growth as one would like it to be, spending by Chinese outside of China may slow. Australia and Singapore, despite  their stable economies may face asset declines as Chinese investors are compelled by economics to keep off (due to  growth slowdown induced finance capital constraints).

The Asians may have overreached themselves in property building and the earlier growth momentum  may have  induced asset bubbles.Emerging market economies may have permitted themselves bubbles on the support of low cost liquidity.  As yields decline, there is a likely flight to safety as investors may choose Dollar assets.  Those unwilling to fly in to the dollar may seek out the temporary comfort of the yen.

Views Expressed without any risk or reponsibility

Monday, January 26, 2015

Of logos, ethos and pathos. Greece

Logic : growth stifling slow;  unemployment high, population most disconcerting as real incomes fall  and there is disconnect with reality among politicians.

Ethos :   Culture of  superficial actions by the rich countries. An arrogance wealth perceived in German bearing. 

Pathos of a nation adrift not knowing which it has to turn with austerity and the overload of  "odious debt".

Policies have to follow politics. Markets look set for further uncertainty.

Friday, January 23, 2015

Markets under siege of policy surprises?

The reluctance of the policy makers to be cent per cent transparent costs someone in the market. It is a zero sum game so some gain at the others expense. A spate of recent surprises have affected the market; examples:

  1. The rapid transformation of the USA into  a resource based economy and the consequential fall in oil prices;
  2. The repeated insistence of Saudi Arabia that they do not care if oil prices fall but will maintain production; 
  3. The Swiss National Bank's famous Swiss Franc de-pegging;
  4. Mario Draghi's ECB QE being larger than anticipated;
  5. The 25 bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada
  6. The 25 bp rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India ahead of schedule;
  7. The Danish Central bank intervening by rate cut to weaken currency;
  8. A 50 bp cut by Egyptian Central bank.  


Markets are places that arbitrage on surprises.


Without any risk or responsibility 

Looking for a Dealer Job? Some probable questions....

10 Generic and 12 Subject related Questions a dealer should be ready with answers.

1.     Your  Brief Profile. 
2.     5 major accomplishments / highlights of your career.
3.     Your Goals in your life.
4.     Why do you think you should be in the dealing room?
5.     Where do you think you would be 5 years from now ?
6.     If you were to make a Swot analysis of yourself, what do you think your assessment would be?
7.     What are the most (3) important events in your life?
8.     Who has / have influenced the most in your life? Why?
9.     Have you changed over the years? If so, how & Why?
10.  Do you consider yourself as a leader or a follower?
11. Who is your role model as a Foreign Exchange Dealer? Why do you consider him a role model?
12. Do you think you make profits in all your deals?
13. If you have a position and the market is moving against you, what do you do?
14. What is a currency carry trade?
15. Do you have a solution for Europe’s Economy?
16. What do you think will be the impact of Mario Draghi's QE?
17. Explain Grexit.
18. What is 'knockout option'?
19. China seeks a third position for its currency: do you think it is possible?
20. How do you see the Loonie, Kiwi and the Aussie?     
21. Why do you think SNB recently de-pegged?

22. Do you think the Danes should de-peg? 

Without any risk or responsibility...

OECD On Unemployment in Greece

The 2014 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook reviews recent labour market trends and short-term prospects in OECD and key emerging economies.  (OECD Employment Outlook Sept, 2014- http://www.oecd.org/greece/EMO-GRC-EN.pdf) 

It makes the following points on Greece:

  • "Unemployment in Greece remains at its highest level since the onset of the crisis
  • Despite moderate signs of recovery across many OECD countries in 2014, the unemployment rate in Greece remains stuck at close to its highest level since the onset of the economic crisis (27.2% as of May 2014).
  • OECD projections suggest that the expected joblessness rate in Greece will remain high (around 27%) through to the end of 2015.
  • ·         As of the first quarter of 2014, more than one in three unemployed persons had been out of work for 12 months or more across the OECD.
  • ·         Greece shows one of the highest shares of long-term unemployment in the OECD. This has increased from 49% to 71% between Q4 2007 and Q1 2014."
  • ·          "This trend is particularly worrisome for the hardship it imposes on the individuals concerned and their families. It also potentially contributes to a rise in structural unemployment as a result of skill depreciation and declining motivation to find a job. This could have potential ‘scarring’ effects on the long term career prospects of those experiencing long spells of unemployment.
  • ·         Greece experienced one of the largest falls in real wages across OECD countries (more than 5% per year on average since the first quarter of 2009). The private sector was hit hard by wage cuts (-3.4% per year) but these cuts were also experienced in the public sector (-1.9% per year). While the sharp decline of wages contributed to partially reverse the gap in unit labour costs with Germany, and restore external competitiveness, hourly labour productivity growth has remained stubbornly negative since the onset of the crisis.  "

Without any risk or responsibility 

Greece : The agony of a civilization

"In 2015, Athens will have to pay some 22 billion euros ($25.4 billion) in principal and interest on various loans, including 1.6 billion euros in February and 2.6 billion euros in March. The main challenge for Athens will come in the third quarter of the year: Greece is scheduled to pay back debt obligations of 1.5 billion euros in June, 4.7 billion euros in July and 3.6 billion euros in August, in addition to Athens’ financial needs to run the country."

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-from-the-greek-elections-2015-01-23?link=sfmw

"As Greece prepares to vote, a new age of Eurozone tension begins"
"One alternative would be for Greece to abandon the European Union’s common currency, the euro, and slam the door behind by declaring some form of bankruptcy. That prospect, known as the Greek exit, or “Grexit,” could be calamitous for the stability and long-term prosperity of the E.U. economy, in particular the German locomotive that drives it."

Source: http://fortune.com/2015/01/23/as-greece-prepares-to-vote-a-new-age-of-eurozone-tension-begins/


Without any risk or responsibility


The Big Mac Index

 The Economist started the Big Mac index in 1986. It explains currencies’ relative values. It is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, which posits that over the long run, currencies should adjust so that a basket of identical goods costs the same everywhere.
The Economist basket just has the Big Mac, which is made to the same recipe in almost all countries (India’s Maharaja Mac, a chicken sandwich, is an exception). A Big Mac in Switzerland, costs $7.54  at market exchange rates compared with $4.79 in USA, so Big Mac  index suggests the Swiss Franc  is 57.4 % overvalued. The Swiss National Bank has to then further reduce interest rates!!!!

Country
Price
Plus/-percent
Switzerland
7.54
57.4
Norway
6.3
31.5
Denmark
5.38
12.3
Brazil
5.21
8.8
USA
4.79
0.0
Canada
4.64
-3.1
Great Britain
4.37
-8.8
Australia
4.32
-9.8
Euro Area
4.26
-11.1
Philippines
3.67
-23.4
Japan
3.14
-34.4
Thailand
3.04
-36.5
China
2.77
-42.2
India
1.89
-60.5
Russia
1.36
-71.6
Ukraine
1.2
-74.9

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21640370-some-currencies-lose-weight-diet-qe-and-cheap-oil-others-bulk-up-oily-and


Without any risk or responsibility 

The Chinese Perspective of Growth in coming days

Below are excerpts from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s speech to participants at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.  
"Global economic recovery lacks speed and momentum.  
Major economies are performing unevenly.
Commodity prices are going through frequent fluctuations. And signs of deflation have made the situation even worse.  
 The Chinese economy has entered a state of new normal. The gear of growth is shifting from high speed to medium-to-high speed, and development needs to move from low-to-medium level to medium-to-high level. This has made it all the more necessary for us to press ahead with structural reform.
It must be noted that the moderation of growth speed in China reflects both profound adjustments in the world economy as well as the law of economics. The Chinese economy is now the second largest in the world. With a larger base figure, a growth even at 7 percent will produce an annual increase of more than 800 billion US dollars at current price, larger than a 10 percent growth five years ago.
With the economy performing within the reasonable range and the speed of growth no longer taken as the sole yardstick, the strained supply-demand relationship will be eased, the pressure on resources and the environment will be lowered, and more time and energy will be devoted to push forward structural reform. That means, the economy will enter a more advanced stage of development, with more sophisticated division of labor and a more optimized structure. If I could compare the Chinese economy to a running train. What I want you to know is that this train will not lose speed or momentum. It will only be powered by stronger dynamo and run with greater steadiness, bringing along new opportunities and new momentum of growth.
GDP grew by 7.4 percent for the whole year, the best among major economies in the world. Over 13 million new jobs were created in cities, with both registered and surveyed unemployment rates lower than the previous year. That is, we achieved growth in employment despite the economic slowdown. CPI was kept at 2 percent, lower than the target set at the beginning of the year. These outcomes prove that the host of macro-regulation measures China adopted have been right and effective. More importantly, new progress has been made in advancing structural reform.
Needless to say, the Chinese economy will continue to face substantial downward pressure in 2015.
We are taking effective measures to fend off debt, financial and other potential risks. China’ s high savings rate, which now stands at 50 percent, generates sufficient funds for sustaining economic growth. Besides, China’ s local debt, over 70 percent of which was incurred for infrastructure development, is backed by assets. And reform of the financial system is making progress. What I want to emphasize is that regional or systemic financial crisis will not happen in China, and the Chinese economy will not head for a hard landing.
It must be pointed out that China is still a developing country and still has a long way to go before achieving modernization. While peace is the basic condition for China’ s development, reform and opening-up along with our people’ s desire for a happy life constitute the strongest impetus propelling development. The space of development in China’ s rural and urban areas and various regions is enormous, and the country’ s domestic demand will simply generate great potential of growth. Development at medium-to-high speed for another ten to twenty years will bring even bigger changes to China and create more development opportunities for the world.
To ensure long-term and steady growth of the Chinese economy, we need to comprehensively deepen reforms. We need to properly use both the hand of the government and the hand of the market, and rely on both the traditional and new engines of growth. We will let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation to foster a new engine of growth. At the same time, we will give better scope to the role of the government to transform and upgrade the traditional engine of growth.
To foster a new engine of growth, we will encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation. China has 1.3 billion people, a 900-million workforce, and over 70 million enterprises and self-employed businesses. Our people are hard-working and talented. If we could activate every cell in society, the economy of China as a whole will brim with more vigor and gather stronger power for growth. Mass entrepreneurship and innovation, in our eyes, is a “gold mine” that provides constant source of creativity and wealth.
 This year, we have identified some key areas for investment, including building railways in central and western provinces, constructing water conservancy projects, rebuilding rundown urban areas and old houses in cities and villages, and preventing and controlling pollutions. The government will increase investment in these areas, and it will not act alone. Efforts will be made to break monopoly and reform the investment and financing systems to encourage the participation of private and foreign capitals. The model of public-private partnership (PPP), Sino-foreign cooperatives and government purchase of services will be adopted to better leverage various investment sources.
Moving forward, we will deepen fiscal and taxation reform, reduce the tax and fees charged to businesses, particularly those in the service sector, and take new steps to support SMEs. We will deepen reform of the financial system, continue to promote liberalization of interest and exchange rates, and accelerate the development of small- and medium-sized financial institutions, private banks in particular, with a view to developing a multi-tiered capital market. We will speed up reform of the pricing system, substantially reduce the types and items for which the government sets the prices, and liberate price regulation to the maximum extent possible. More emphasis will be given to the government’ s role in creating a favorable “soft environment” . That means better market regulation, a world-class business environment established on market principles and the rule of law. In this way, we will be able to provide efficient and quality public services to all market players.
China will explore new approaches to investment cooperation with other countries. China’ s high-speed railway, nuclear power, aviation, telecommunications and other sophisticated manufacturing capacities are gradually being introduced to other countries. They could meet market demand of the recipient country, and stand the test of competition on the international market. Their export will also help open up third-country markets, as many of such products are made by joint ventures between China and a foreign country. China has put forward the initiatives to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. China hopes to work with other countries to advance these initiatives and ensure that they are brought forward in ways that meet the actual needs of countries concerned."

 https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/01/chinese-premier-li-keqiangs-speech-at-davos-2015/?utm_content=buffer693ac&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
 Without any  risk or responsibility