Markets under siege of policy surprises?

The reluctance of the policy makers to be cent per cent transparent costs someone in the market. It is a zero sum game so some gain at the others expense. A spate of recent surprises have affected the market; examples:

1. The rapid transformation of the USA into  a resource based economy and the consequential fall in oil prices;
2. The repeated insistence of Saudi Arabia that they do not care if oil prices fall but will maintain production; 
3. The Swiss National Bank's famous Swiss Franc de-pegging;
4. Mario Draghi's ECB QE being larger than anticipated;
5. The 25 bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada
6. The 25 bp rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India ahead of schedule;
7. The Danish Central bank intervening by rate cut to weaken currency;
8. A 50 bp cut by Egyptian Central bank.  

Markets are places that arbitrage on surprises.


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