Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Why Singapore Dollar might be under pressure:

 Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) says :
"Over the last three months, the S$NEER has generally fluctuated around the middle of the policy band. The depreciation of the S$ against the broad-based strength of the US dollar was partly offset by the appreciation of the S$ against the Malaysian ringgit, euro, and Japanese yen. Thus, movements in the S$NEER have been relatively muted compared to bilateral S$ movements against the major currencies. The three-month S$ SIBOR increased slightly from 0.41% at end-September 2014 to 0.46% at end-December. It rose further to 0.65% in mid-January 2015, and has since stayed at around this level.  "


1.      Singapore economy grew  only  by 1.6% in Q4 2014 on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, or about half the pace of expansion in Q3.

2.      The Monetary Authority of Singapore's 2015 growth forecast for the Singapore economy at 2–4% looks a little difficult to achieve given the  state of the world economy.  

3.      The fall in global oil prices.

4.      MAS Core Inflation moderated to 1.6% y-o-y in Q4 2014 from 2.1% in Q3, while CPI-All Items inflation fell to -0.1% from 0.9%.  

5.      Rentals will fall against oversupply in the housing market.    
6.      CPI-All Items inflation is now projected by MAS at -0.5–0.5%, from the 0.5–1.5% expected in October.  MAS Core Inflation is expected to be 0.5–1.5% this year, down from the earlier forecast range of 2–3% .

7.      MAS has said it will continue with the policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band.  However, the slope of the policy band will be reduced, with no change to its width and the level at which it is centred.  This measured adjustment to the policy stance is consistent with the more benign inflation outlook in 2015 and appropriate for ensuring medium-term price stability in the economy.  

Reading:  MAS Monetary Policy Stt. 28 January 2015. http://www.mas.gov.sg/news-and-publications/speeches-and-monetary-policy-statements/2015/monetary-policy-statement-28jan15.aspx

Views Expressed without Any Risk or Responsibility.



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