India: NPAs of banks worrisome?
If
there is a banking crisis triggered by credit defaults in India , it would cost many thousands of jobs. India's banks are overdependent on state
funding and is a drain on the exchequer. Government recognizes that increased
capital requirements comes with a cost.
It is a political reality that a large
bank cannot be allowed to falter, leave fail. Saving banks has massive costs for the economy. Because
of systemic contagion effect and because of political compulsions, banks are protected to be lethargically large. India's banks are nowhere in the top league globally by any measure except perhaps numbers
employed. India's banks are seeking heads who are aged and decrepit instead of being forward looking. There is a severe talent dearth and there are many X Inefficiencies.
Oil and Europe seem inclined to fall and both seem to be in conformity with real economics. Greece has a history and history repeats ; oil is just about splurging to the consumer's delight.
Malaysian Ringitt: the surprise was not that it fell but that it took so long - as the dollar rises, it looks quite likely that Asian currencies will be under pressure.
Gold's rise looks at best a short parking move rather than a reversal of a long term trend. Unless ECB comes out with specifics on stimulii, gold moves up can only be in the shortest run.
Views expressed without risk or responsibility
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