Friday, January 23, 2015

The Chinese Perspective of Growth in coming days

Below are excerpts from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s speech to participants at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.  
"Global economic recovery lacks speed and momentum.  
Major economies are performing unevenly.
Commodity prices are going through frequent fluctuations. And signs of deflation have made the situation even worse.  
 The Chinese economy has entered a state of new normal. The gear of growth is shifting from high speed to medium-to-high speed, and development needs to move from low-to-medium level to medium-to-high level. This has made it all the more necessary for us to press ahead with structural reform.
It must be noted that the moderation of growth speed in China reflects both profound adjustments in the world economy as well as the law of economics. The Chinese economy is now the second largest in the world. With a larger base figure, a growth even at 7 percent will produce an annual increase of more than 800 billion US dollars at current price, larger than a 10 percent growth five years ago.
With the economy performing within the reasonable range and the speed of growth no longer taken as the sole yardstick, the strained supply-demand relationship will be eased, the pressure on resources and the environment will be lowered, and more time and energy will be devoted to push forward structural reform. That means, the economy will enter a more advanced stage of development, with more sophisticated division of labor and a more optimized structure. If I could compare the Chinese economy to a running train. What I want you to know is that this train will not lose speed or momentum. It will only be powered by stronger dynamo and run with greater steadiness, bringing along new opportunities and new momentum of growth.
GDP grew by 7.4 percent for the whole year, the best among major economies in the world. Over 13 million new jobs were created in cities, with both registered and surveyed unemployment rates lower than the previous year. That is, we achieved growth in employment despite the economic slowdown. CPI was kept at 2 percent, lower than the target set at the beginning of the year. These outcomes prove that the host of macro-regulation measures China adopted have been right and effective. More importantly, new progress has been made in advancing structural reform.
Needless to say, the Chinese economy will continue to face substantial downward pressure in 2015.
We are taking effective measures to fend off debt, financial and other potential risks. China’ s high savings rate, which now stands at 50 percent, generates sufficient funds for sustaining economic growth. Besides, China’ s local debt, over 70 percent of which was incurred for infrastructure development, is backed by assets. And reform of the financial system is making progress. What I want to emphasize is that regional or systemic financial crisis will not happen in China, and the Chinese economy will not head for a hard landing.
It must be pointed out that China is still a developing country and still has a long way to go before achieving modernization. While peace is the basic condition for China’ s development, reform and opening-up along with our people’ s desire for a happy life constitute the strongest impetus propelling development. The space of development in China’ s rural and urban areas and various regions is enormous, and the country’ s domestic demand will simply generate great potential of growth. Development at medium-to-high speed for another ten to twenty years will bring even bigger changes to China and create more development opportunities for the world.
To ensure long-term and steady growth of the Chinese economy, we need to comprehensively deepen reforms. We need to properly use both the hand of the government and the hand of the market, and rely on both the traditional and new engines of growth. We will let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation to foster a new engine of growth. At the same time, we will give better scope to the role of the government to transform and upgrade the traditional engine of growth.
To foster a new engine of growth, we will encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation. China has 1.3 billion people, a 900-million workforce, and over 70 million enterprises and self-employed businesses. Our people are hard-working and talented. If we could activate every cell in society, the economy of China as a whole will brim with more vigor and gather stronger power for growth. Mass entrepreneurship and innovation, in our eyes, is a “gold mine” that provides constant source of creativity and wealth.
 This year, we have identified some key areas for investment, including building railways in central and western provinces, constructing water conservancy projects, rebuilding rundown urban areas and old houses in cities and villages, and preventing and controlling pollutions. The government will increase investment in these areas, and it will not act alone. Efforts will be made to break monopoly and reform the investment and financing systems to encourage the participation of private and foreign capitals. The model of public-private partnership (PPP), Sino-foreign cooperatives and government purchase of services will be adopted to better leverage various investment sources.
Moving forward, we will deepen fiscal and taxation reform, reduce the tax and fees charged to businesses, particularly those in the service sector, and take new steps to support SMEs. We will deepen reform of the financial system, continue to promote liberalization of interest and exchange rates, and accelerate the development of small- and medium-sized financial institutions, private banks in particular, with a view to developing a multi-tiered capital market. We will speed up reform of the pricing system, substantially reduce the types and items for which the government sets the prices, and liberate price regulation to the maximum extent possible. More emphasis will be given to the government’ s role in creating a favorable “soft environment” . That means better market regulation, a world-class business environment established on market principles and the rule of law. In this way, we will be able to provide efficient and quality public services to all market players.
China will explore new approaches to investment cooperation with other countries. China’ s high-speed railway, nuclear power, aviation, telecommunications and other sophisticated manufacturing capacities are gradually being introduced to other countries. They could meet market demand of the recipient country, and stand the test of competition on the international market. Their export will also help open up third-country markets, as many of such products are made by joint ventures between China and a foreign country. China has put forward the initiatives to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. China hopes to work with other countries to advance these initiatives and ensure that they are brought forward in ways that meet the actual needs of countries concerned."

 https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/01/chinese-premier-li-keqiangs-speech-at-davos-2015/?utm_content=buffer693ac&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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