Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie set to decline?

Given that resource rich economies are not doing too well (an offshoot of persistent fall in commodity prices), the three currencies are likely to fall. Given that Europe is still wobbly,  euro could be added to the list. The QE   together with the Greek results add to indications of sustained euro weaknesses.

As China  is not as fast in growth as one would like it to be, spending by Chinese outside of China may slow. Australia and Singapore, despite  their stable economies may face asset declines as Chinese investors are compelled by economics to keep off (due to  growth slowdown induced finance capital constraints).

The Asians may have overreached themselves in property building and the earlier growth momentum  may have  induced asset bubbles.Emerging market economies may have permitted themselves bubbles on the support of low cost liquidity.  As yields decline, there is a likely flight to safety as investors may choose Dollar assets.  Those unwilling to fly in to the dollar may seek out the temporary comfort of the yen.

Views Expressed without any risk or reponsibility

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