Tuesday, February 10, 2015

India's Experiments with Growth


     The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, had revised its base year to 2011-12 and released revised annual estimate of National Income and other macroeconomic aggregates on 30th January 2015. Advance estimates of National Income for the financial year 2014-15, at constant (2011-12) and current prices were  released.  Economists are not convinced of this move.

GDP growth rates for 2014-15 and Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2014-15 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:

Growth Rates  of GDP

Constant prices  (2011-12)
Current prices
Annual 2014-15(Advance)
7.4
11.5
Q12014-15(April-June)
6.5
12.8
Q2 2014-15(July-Sep)
8.2
12.8
Q3 2014-15(Oct-Dec)
7.5
9.0







http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=115294


In the Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, (FICCI) ’s Economic Outlook Survey, GDP growth is forecast at 5.6% for 2014-15. With  reforms, they  reasonably expect to go beyond 6% in the next fiscal.

"For 2014-15, real GDP growth is projected to lie between 5 and 6 per cent, with a central estimate of 5.5 per cent... For 2015-16, real GDP growth is projected to rise to 6.3 per cent," RBI said in its  September monetary policy report

While leaving the controversy over the  growth figures aside, how could India accelerate itself ? Possibly by ensuring that stalled projects are put on stream. There are tiers of bureaucrats sitting in judgment over decisions. There is little accountability.  Investments worth $ 300 billion are stuck in projects that are being delayed.  Since over one year there is talk of removing obstacles. 

  • An ounce of practice is worth more than tons of preaching.” (Gandhi)

Without any risk or responsibilty





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