Friday, February 20, 2015

Soll Griechenland aus dem Euro ausscheiden? Greece to have a V shaped Growth on Exit?


Most Germans seem to say Ja - Yes.  to the above question Should Greece leave the euro? of a Grexit.? 


Most Germans seem to suggest that they have endured Greece and its extravagant habits long enough. They feel that an end to the agony is better than a never ending of saga of carry forward series of agonies.

In a country of great footballers, for German it is 'sudden death' that is preferable.

However, for the Greeks optimism lives eternally in the human breast.  

The support  of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ( IBRD) in reconstructing war damaged post-War Germany  may have  brought back growth to Germany; but then that is history and has no contemporary significance. . One does not live in the past,one  lives in the  present and the future. For the present , German economy  is the most powerful in Europe.

Will a Greek exit hurt the markets. The period of european masterly inactivity  was long and therefore  the agony has since abated. Market has factored in.

Greece has great company. Great Britain is a great example of how you can be so near and yet so far. UK may be doing satisfactorily well and definitely better than some of the EU countries. In the middle east,  Oman refused to be cowed down by the might of the Saudis and kept out of a proposed GCC currency union. It has not lost much.

Greek citizens have been migrants ; and the Greeks have become talent supplier and cheaper at that.
With Japan, New Zealand, Australia and USA looking good, Greeks abroad are set on a better future.
Greece under Tsipras may, through a combo of outward migration and inward investment (buying cheap) see a V shaped Growth ; if Greece exits, it may see a sudden fall but then have a splendid growth outwitting European peers.  Greece is too historic and  strategic to let go.  As a tourist destination, it will do well with every fall in currency value.



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