Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Currency Wars : USA and Europe have little fire power.

Foreign Exchange Reserves are an indicator of the ability to withstand a currency war. We attempt a study of this ability by analysing the data available from Bank for International Settlements which is as of 2013.  Figures are in billion of US Dollars.

Table I gives the Position of Changes and of Stocks of Forex Reserves 
 Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Outstanding 2013
World 641 819 1100 941 747 733 11686
US 4 1 2 0 -2 -2 48
Euro Area -1 -8 13 1 12 1 221
Japan 55 -7 39 185 -28 9 1203
Swiss 0 47 126 54 197 21 489
Asia 410 715 651 424 239 529 5880
China 418 453 448 334 130 510 3821
Taipei 21 56 34 4 18 14 417
Hong Kong 30 73 13 17 32 -6 311
India -20 12 9 -5 -1 6 268
Indonesia -5 11 29 14 2 -12 93
Korea -61 65 22 11 19 19 336
Malaysia -10 2 9 27 6 -4 130
Philippines 3 4 16 12 6 2 74
Singapore 11 12 38 12 21 14 270
Thailand 23 25 32 0 6 -12 159
LatAm 42 25 81 97 51 -6 688
Argentina 0 -1 4 -7 -3 -12 25
Brazil 13 39 49 63 19 -13 349
Chile 6 1 2 14 0 0 39
Mexico 8 0 21 23 16 15 169
Venezuela 9 -15 -8 -3 0 -4 2
CEE 6 13 14 3 15 20 294
Middle East 150 -29 50 88 148 79 893
Russia -56 -5 27 8 32 -17 456

 It could be seen that the fire power is with Asia and most particularly with China in quantum terms
Table II gives the percentage share of respective Group or Country to Total World Reserve Stock.

Table II Respective Percent to Total World Reserves. 
US 0.41
Euro Area 1.89
Japan 10.29
Swiss 4.18
Asia 50.32
China 32.70
Taipei 3.57
Hong Kong 2.66
India 2.29
Indonesia 0.80
Korea 2.88
Malaysia 1.11
Philippines 0.63
Singapore 2.31
Thailand 1.36
LatAm 5.89
Argentina 0.21
Brazil 2.99
Chile 0.33
Mexico 1.45
Venezuela 0.02
CEE 2.52
Middle East 7.64
Russia 3.90

CEE = Central and Eastern Europe
Middle East = Only 4 countries    Kuwait, Libya, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. 
China and Hong Kong together is 35 percent of World reserves. Japan and 4 Oil exporters are seemingly strong. The rest are just on the periphery. 



No comments:

Post a Comment