15 reasons why markets will be volatile for some more time....

The forex and bond markets seem set for a few more volatile days for the following reasons:

1.    Greece and the Hellenic charge of the EU brigade under the German generals.

2.    The discernible divergence in growth between countries. USA , China, India, Germany are all on growth, while others ranging from Venezuela to South Africa to Ghana  to Russia are lagging. The nothingness of some countries like Venezuela, Russia: the hitherto were power negotiators

3.    The organized advanced economies are contributing less to global growth,  and the emerging economies have seized the initiative by contributing more to global growth; some estimates show their contribution at 70 %.

4.    Europe is down; parts of it are virtually out. The unemployment rate in Spain and Greece, at around 25 percent, is at a post war high.

5.    Currency tremors range from Swiss Francs to Danish Kroner which are seeing a fall in euro.

6.    China can average only at about 7 %. India and China , both the new big guys to watch, seem to be wrestling with work practices which are  not so professional. Herd instincts and not so transparent corporates in India affect growth. Reforms are slow in India.

7.    Indian and Chinese banking system seem vulnerable.

8.    Japan , is struggling to be reborn as an economic power; recession just does not seem to vacate.

9.    QE is over in USA  but has just begun in Europe and Japan. These asset purchases will move markets.

10.  Bond yields have been falling. Japanese and German 10 year government bonds have fallen so low.

11.  Deflation worries are real in large parts of the world. consumer price inflation is very low and below the monetary policy target bands in several advanced economies.  

12.  The nearly 55 percent decline in oil prices in US dollars and the near 25  percent decline in  commodity prices  add to deflation fears.

13.  Japanese, ECB ,  Chinese, Indian, Danish, Swiss, Canada Australian central banks have  cut rates or attempted to increase liquidity too revive industry.  

14.  US dollar is strengthening. Interest rates are set to rise and as  us assets increase in value, there will be an exit from the emerging economies into USA.

15.  The primary transmission mechanism for expanded quantitative easing is likely to be through exchange rate adjustment. Exchange rate tensions among countries will increase as it affects sales.

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