Showing posts with label US Economy; China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Economy; China. Show all posts

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Weaknesses of Europe and China already factored in...

China's weaknesses and a weak Europe are factors already factored in. Then why should traders sell on this news? The US economy is emerging stronger with benign housing data. So Wall Street may see inflows and thus higher levels. The appreciation in the dollar is indicative. 

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The Internet of Things will drive a bull market.


  1. Abeonomics is on despite temporary setbacks; 
  2. US economy is throwing out the right signals: just enough to keep interest rates high and just right to have no worries on prices;
  3. Europe's Central Bank seems to assimilate the benign effect of QE;
  4. China will grow , continue to grow and will lead in growth figures despite all its slow down worries;
  5. Indian reforms are back on track; although India is far behind China, it is seriously for once, trying to make a dash for it;
  6. Technology is helping corporates with enhanced productivity.
  7. The Internet of Things will keep on lifting the markets...


Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Bull run expectation reinforced.

Abenomics should see Japan through. Efforts are on to weaken the yen, revive profits and help restore confidence in the economy. There are blips  like the technicality of recession; but then the Japanese economy has been on a 'price harakiri' since 1990s. Price falls have hollowed out Japanese manufacturing.
So stimulus has to be on: we really are looking at softer interest rates for quite a few months from now on. So Gold is again picking up. The strengthening of the Euro , is however a cause for concern for the Europeans. US economy would benefit and hence Wall Street should do well. 

Monday, November 17, 2014

Indian stocks look good today

With SBI being on a NPA recovery path, financial stocks are likely to push Indian stock higher today. Among Emerging economies India looks most promising and so foreigners seem to park at least till there are alternatives. All set , it looks , like a high day. With Australia balancing well between India and China, it seems a buy day.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/australia-india-trade-idINKCN0J12DX20141117

Wall Street may shrug off...

The Japanese recession. Japan has been struggling for some time. That would have been  factored in.So by the time the Japanese recession reaches Wall Street it may be just ripples. Germany the largest economy in Europe and France the other important economy, are doing well. So the sentiment looks likely to turn positive by New York time...

Friday, November 14, 2014

If winter comes...

Can consumer spending be far behind? So the US economy looks on a good rebound. With USA on the growth path, the Asian economies from China to Vietnam to India should do well. That augurs well for the economies of the world. Africa, once it recovers from the Ebola scare could join the bandwagon. The Middle east  and European economies may have to wait.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Float today?

1. China slow growth fears.
2. Asian markets receded.
3. South Korean and Indian automakers seem to struggle.
4. Oil fell again as automakers receded and Chinese growth
5. The currencies in Asia and Aussie fell further.
6. Gold fell again...

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

A Requiem for QE: Roses in December

Seven years of Quantitative Easing will phase out this evening. For long years and with $4 trillion plus, the Fed kept the World going. Bold generals of an inspiring Monetary policy which reminded one of John Maynard Keynes.
The stimulus program kept the USA, the world's largest economy and the others afloat.

There are fears that gnaw what happens when the Fed is quiet and the price curve moves up. US market seems confident at least on the retail front.
Fed took us through the Economic Winter. "Christmas comes at Winter time ; God Gave us memory so that we may have Roses in December." (Anonymous)

ECB and Bundesbank need to take a leaf out of the Fed's book on  how to manage a potential deflation. The other route is to go the Japanese way. 

Monday, October 27, 2014

Wall Street cautious. . .

Fed will have to postpone its QE withdrawal.  Given that Europe seems fragile and with Japan and China not so healthy,  the mantle of leadership again falls on Fed. Markets are so dependent on the direction of the Fed. 

Monday, October 20, 2014

China growth does not convince...

Asia's markets shrugged off the Chinese GDP figures, the weakest in post 2009 . Expectations of European equity markets following last evening's Dow on an upward move seems rather a hope. Unless the ECB continues aggressively with a stimulus programme, Europe has no real economics to back such a surge at this point. A strengthening of Euro may further dampen shares.
Europe may rise marginally  but has by the end level off or cede space.

Time for creative destruction...

IBM is realistic. It sensed right that buyers are becoming wary. People are reluctant spenders when they see uncertain days ahead...

IT industry is in a state of  creative destruction with Cloud, mobile apps and Big Data hustling minds... it might take a bit of time for the corporates to gather their wits around...

Ebola is making everyone take notice and IMF will have to further revise its figures.

Crude will have to follow the fall in equity markets  and Tuesday should see a sell off  beginning equity markets in Asia.  

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Some Wall Street optimism...

USA has an inherent strength in its research and technology which makes it a world leader. Its immigration policy indicates its openness to a crowd of the young and the bright  that really makes it internationally competitive. That 'less traveled road' makes all the difference and with a nearly 15 percent drop in oil prices, real incomes in USA will increase. That should see the great economy wither the current storm. Wall Street optimism : would it be a harbinger?  

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Sentiments drive markets...Unreal economics?

IMF  and World Bank predictions drove markets down... German, China and LatAm concerns expressed by Washington's supra-nationals helped push the markets down...
In this fall, are the seeds of the rise. Consumer spending will increase as real incomes increase following drop in gasoline prices. China, India, USA and even Europeans will benefit.
The strengthening of the dollar will keep the prices of oil down for sometime.  Corporates will gain.
The problems of banking are however the main worry in the minds of Asian giants India and China. Loads of non-performing assets and recovery  worries haunt banks and regulators. If the Asians are able to smoothen those creases, Asia will pull the World recovery with USA. Cost heavy, close fenced Europe will continue to totter ... the question is not whether but when the cost heavy economies will decline and fall... If euro declines it reflects real economics...

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

IMF - World Bank Worries over Growth:Fears? Ghosts of Fears?

IMF has just lowered global growth expectations because of slower growth in Latin America, Japan & China.  World Bank has lowered its growth estimates for China and East Asia. Markets have also been hit by weak German data.

The markets may have already factored  these: Japan has been in recession for long; Europe has been ailing with problems in Portugal, Greece,  Spain. The key issue in the European economies seems to be ageing: the ratio of non-productive to productive labor (in these economies) is high. The Chinese economy is stalling; but it should revive soon.

However, the USA  and Indian economies should counterbalance. With a command over a quarter of the World GDP by PPP, the two economies could keep the world growth on momentum.  The recent employment figures of  USA encourage one to be optimistic. The Indian economy seems to have a new direction. One high growth area is Africa  though corruption and Ebola may temporarily hold this continent back. 

Yet sentiments seem hesitant on global markets. "Fear creates its own ghosts which are more fearsome than fear itself!"