The maturing of the Middle Class...

The fall in consumer spending in the USA despite real incomes rising  (owing to falling oil prices falling) indicates a maturing middle class who are reluctant to spend and more keen on saving. They have been on the learning curve of a recession. There is a certain circumspection which the consumer prefers, fresh as his mind is on the impact of the Great Recession. Saving today is spending tomorrow.

The strength of the dollar might have hurt the american exports a trifling and that seems reflected in the increased jobless claims.

 Greek news gets better:

Heard melodies are sweet:

 "I'm very confident that together we can find a mutually viable solution in order to heal the wounds of austerity..."( Tsipras)

Those Unheard are sweeter!

Chancellor Merkel said Germany was ready  for a conciliation.  

Without any risk or responsibility.

If winter comes...

Can consumer spending be far behind? So the US economy looks on a good rebound. With USA on the growth path, the Asian economies from China to Vietnam to India should do well. That augurs well for the economies of the world. Africa, once it recovers from the Ebola scare could join the bandwagon. The Middle east  and European economies may have to wait.

Year of the Consumer

Buffett's Berkshire bought Duracell. Indeed a move to reaffirm the Wise Man's faith in consumer items. We are going to see a spending boom again: that is the signal.
Real prices will be steady given input costs are falling (oil for example) and that prices may not rise so much given that the quantum of money supply is unlikely to increase so much in the coming year. Jobs are more and there is an enhancement in wealth with asset appreciation already perceived. Expectations are likely to keep the momentum going.
The weekend seems a good time to hold stocks and the US dollar. 

Asian Stocks recede as expected; Gold time

Chinese growth may be even lower than 7.5 % expected. With the second largest economy indicating a slower than anticipated growth, demand for oil is expected to be even lower.

Russian scrips are already under pressure  and this will be accelerated by the credit rating agencies downgrading it. The Russians have reportedly used $ 13 billion to defend the ruble; it is difficult to protect a currency when its fundamentals and sentiments are down. Weak Russia might also hurt Germany as it is a business destination.

The reforms surge in India may not keep the momentum in Mumbai stock exchange for long.  For a day in out trader, the best tactic may be  to wait for the initial euphoria to peak in the first half of the day and sell at perceived high levels,  to buy at lower levels later. There is nothing much in the international markets to buy right now except greenback and precious metals.

With Diwali in India and the brewing storm in the markets, investors best bet is the US dollar and Gold. Both are time tested weapons and needs no brain haggling!!!

When Sentiments are geographically spread: a ratchet effect

Citigroup say there is a trillion dollar windfall 'stimulus' in the precipitous oil price falls. That means savings are possible; then  consumer spending should increase. However,  the equity markets are contemplating: falling oil demand means global  output deceleration ; and this has geographically spread from Japan to China to Europe affecting an otherwise recovering USA. Latin America has also been affected. Faced with a possible job cut scenario, customers will be on a lower ratchet - refusing to move up until there is a market indicator from some acceptable term....
The trend is your friend; right now it is a sellers more buyers less for equities. With IT stocks too failing , there is some significant  innovation or central bank action needed.
 It is parking in least risk assets that the investors are obsessed with.