Monday, March 23, 2015

Why Draghi may not be supported by future expectations...

Extracts from a Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, made a speech at  Brussels, on 23 March 2015 to the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in which he stated the following:
 " Indeed, the banks covered in our Bank Lending Survey confirm that the easing of lending conditions is progressing hand-in-hand with a resurgent demand for credit to finance business investment. In the longer-term perspective, this will increase potential output.".


Read this hope against a BIS Paper (Why) Is investment weak? by Ryan BanerjeeJonathan Kearns  and Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 18 March 2015

"Expectations of future economic conditions appear to be more important in driving investment decisions. In most economies, a reduction in uncertainty about future economic conditions has boosted investment, but in Europe uncertainty has seemingly intensified, restraining investment. "
So Draghi may have good intentions  but will investors respond ? Do circumstances in the economies of Europe (Greece, Spain, France, Portugal) permit an optimistic outlook? A cost inefficient (read rather closed  Europe) may see corporates moving out to Asia and even USA Are we expecting too much in the 'wisdom late comer QE'?


 Without risk or responsibility

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