The Long and the Short of It : Crystal Gazing the market for the week

The Long and the Short of the Markets:

Markets seem likely to be more volatility prone this week .

The moment of truth moment for Greece with the probability of a debt debacle  and the Europeans' frustrating lack of consensus.

Australia is languishing in the Chinese shadow. The number of people trapped in long-term unemployment in Australia hit a 16-year high,  unemployed for a year or more has risen by 18 per cent over the past year to 188,000 ; that is almost three times more than mid-2008. Yet Melbourne and Sydney property prices are high, possibly because the Chinese are letting go off domestic property to invest in Australia , riding on the back of a falling Australian dollar which is being encouraged further south.

 John Cryan in Frankfurt as  CEO of  Deutsche ,  (replacing Jain and Fitschen in the latest of a series of leadership crisis among Western banks indicates how there is divergence between the governance of companies and investors expectations. . Banking stocks may see further pressures.

IMF pointed out that the first quarter was a  'shaky' one for the U.S. economy. Revised IMF growth forecast was down to 2.5 percent for 2015.  Data on the labor market has steadily improved with the job growth averaging  about 250,000 per month.  Cheaper oil prices may boost consumption . However, delay in  the housing recovery and the strong dollar  may keep the inflation pressures quiet  so that the Fed needs to raise rates in the last quarter. Global investment activity indicates that even easy liquidity policy is not enthusing investment.

Source - BIS Statistics

Russia and Qatar could lose the right to host the 2018 and 2022 World Cups if evidence is found of corruption in the bidding process. About 14 FIFA officials and sports marketing executives are accused by US prosecutors of taking part in a sweeping kickbacks scheme going back 20 years involving a total of $150 million in bribes. Would sponsor corporate entities  be involved  and would they be sold off on world equity markets?

Gold seems to continue to be gathering dust.  

Emerging economies seem too hot for now. 

G7 meet in Germany seems to have a Russian contain agenda rather than economics. They will speak more on Ukraine and just a whisper  on Greece. 

Schloss Elmau, Germany G-7 Meet 

So the hesitant investor seems to  look to USD  assets for the coming week. When in doubt, get to the safe haven.

Without any risk or responsibility.