Sunday, June 28, 2015

Achtung! BIS calls the current global system a 'malaise'... is a rout in the offing?

BIS, (Bank for International Settlements) in its latest report says (Excerpts here)
" Between December 2014 and end-May 2015, on average around $2 trillion in global long-term sovereign debt, much of it issued by euro area sovereigns, was trading at negative yields. At their trough, French, German and Swiss sovereign yields were negative out to a respective five, nine and 15 years. Such yields are unprecedented. "


"Policy rates are even lower than at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis in both nominal and real terms. And in real terms they have now been negative for even longer than during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Yet, exceptional as this situation may be, many expect it to continue. There is something deeply troubling when the unthinkable threatens to become routine."
Such low rates are only the most obvious symptom of a broader malaise,..."
"We argue that the current malaise may to a considerable extent reflect a failure to come to grips with how financial developments interact with output and inflation in a globalised economy. For some time now, policies have proved ineffective in preventing the build-up and collapse of hugely damaging financial imbalances, whether in advanced or in emerging market economies (EMEs). These have left long-lasting scars in the economic tissue, as they have sapped productivity and misallocated real resources across sectors and over time."


Our Comments: Are we seeing a weary central banking; or a monetary fatigue? Is it that they are desolate? is it a prediction of a slippage to economic intensive care?



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