Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Leaving the euro might be good for Greece? Greece you have nothing to lose but unemployment!

Youth Unemployment - Greece
Year
Percent

2011

44

2012

55

2013

58

2013Q4

57

Source: Eurostat


The youth of Greece are obviously suffering. To help the youngsters get jobs, it  might just as well be a good idea to leave the euro. It could get  to its own currency (Drachma?)and steeply devalue the domestic currency, It should then concentrate on the services sector like tourism and travel, airline hub building, ship sea line hub, IT park and an education centre. (Cluster driven growth) 

 One reason is that Greece is unable to capitalize on its tourism potential and its tradition shipping industry is owing to the continuous appreciation in the euro since 2000. The appreciation in the euro from the time of its birth has affected the Greek youth adversely with currency outbidding travel.  The recent depreciation is too little too late. 

Devaluation of currency will help the services industry, mainly tourism (inward remittances from travel industry) and the Sealine industry. Given that Greece has been a very popular destination and has all the potential to grow to the Dubai of Europe.  The political unrest in  Egypt should help bring in the Middle east tourist.  There would be big multipliers in the tourism and services industries. 

(Note: According to the Bank of Greece: In March 2015,  the current account balance showed a deficit of €404 million, up by €316 million year-on-year.

This is attributable to a decline in the surplus of the services balance and to a deterioration in the primary and the secondary income accounts.

The deficit of the balance of goods decreased by €281 million year-on-year, mainly on account of the lower net oil import bill, which reflects the fall in oil prices. In addition, net payments for purchases of ships also declined. By contrast, the deficit of the balance of goods excluding oil and ships registered an increase, despite a 12.8% rise in export receipts, given that the corresponding imports grew more.

The surplus of the services balance shrank, owing to lower net receipts from construction and financial services, as well as from sea transport services. The surplus of the travel services balance rose slightly, as a result of an increase of 34.3% in non-residents’ arrivals in March and a 13.3% rise in the corresponding receipts, which offset an increase in travel spending abroad by residents.)

without any risk or responsibility 

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