Showing posts with label Rupee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rupee. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The way the cookie crumbles...If Shanghai falls , Can Mumbai be far behind?

The Chinese market peaked on  June 12;  since then, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen almost 32 percent, dropping by more than 5 percent on some days. More than 30 percent has been knocked off the value of Chinese shares since mid-June.

Chinese Government, corporate, and household borrowing totalled $28 trillion as of mid-2014, or about 282 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, ( McKinsey).

All are connected in a globalized world...

In a convergent world, Shanghai chills should  send shivers down Mumbai spines. With the sloth of Indian bureaucracy, the lack of reforms, the rising tide of non performing and stressed assets in banking, the seeming irrelevance of the monetary transmission mechanism and the opaque broker practices, can Indian markets claim contrarian ism? The Modinomics of a digitilazied, made in India economy is yet to settle in. 

Sell on the rupee, buy on the yen .? 

Until then , be circumspect. Buyers, beware... 

Without risk or responsibility....

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Mumbai Stock Exchange: wisdom is a latecomer?

This morning the Sensex has been down 300 points and the Nifty over a 120 points. The surprise is not that the indices are looking south but that it took so long to see that markets do not run on sentiments but on ground reality. Markets driven by 'herd instinct' are not necessarily on sound basis; nor are markets always on a one way 'trip up.'  In a globalised economy, Mumbai is not decoupled and the sooner we realize this the better in the long run.  Sectors like  banking  with their huge quanta of NPAs should really worry the shareholders.

The Indian rupee is under pressure obviously as the share market too is seeing sellers. A stronger rupee has no macho element; in today's world of competitive pricing a falling rupee is to be welcomed.

There has been a lot of cosmetic management among Indian companies. There has to be value based, efficiency driven managerial restructuring,  India has talent but has short term routes to profits and this type of myopic managerial approach  makes it lag behind China by a decade.

Without risk or responsibility.