Showing posts with label IT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IT. Show all posts

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Is TCS justified in bidding for Perot? Where Eagles should not dare....

Tata Consultancy Services has reportedly recommenced talks with Dell for its Perot IT business. One  needs to put matters in a proper perspective.
  • India's $146-billion IT industry is already facing the impact of global slowdown. TCS would also be affected. 
  • Perot Systems is a worldwide provider of information technology services and business solutions;  IT consulting to hospitals and government departments is reportedly its forte. Does TCS really need to strengthen these areas? In hospital care for example it is the times of reverse innovation. 
  • Dell has managed to obtain not so satisfactory bids from  TCS, Cognizant and  Atos SE.
  • In 2009,  Dell had  acquired Perot Systems in a transaction valued at approximately $3.9 billion.  Michael Dell, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Dell had then stated: “ We consider Perot Systems to be a premium asset with great people that enhances our opportunities for immediate and long-term growth. This significantly expands Dell’s enterprise-solutions capabilities and makes Perot Systems’ strengths available to even more customers around the world. " This dream stands adrift  and the premium asset appears to be at discount. 
 The expanded Dell  was supposed to be
  • Providing a broader range of IT services and solutions and optimizing how they’re delivered;
  • Extending the reach of Perot Systems’ capabilities, including in the most dynamic customer segments, around the world; and,
  • Supplying leading Dell computer systems to even more Perot Systems customers.

The acquisition seems to have not delivered to Dell despite these expectations. 

Questions Investors in TCS  must ask: 
  • TCS and Perot Systems do they  share key characteristics or products?
  • Are the  services and structures in any manner complementary?
  • Do they have mutually acceptable  relationship-based  work cultures?
  •  Will there be any synergies?
  • Is there complementarities in global commercial customer base between Perot and TCS?
  • If Perot had revenue earning services and has a customer base, why should Dell divest?

Caution is the key.

Tailpiece:  "Eagles don't flock. You have to find them one at a time." - H. Ross Perot 

This blog recommends no investment or disnvestment. Views expressed are without any risk or responsibility. 


Saturday, April 18, 2015

Europe is frozen in the past....

Why Europeans have a reason to be afraid of things...

Europe is in the throes of anxiety, nay fear. Fear of the future.  "Fear creates its own fears which are more fearsome than fear itself."(Author unknown) 

  • ·         Saturday evening , Germans marched in Berlin, Munich and other cities, protesting the US -EU Free Trade pact - Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
  • ·         Last week a lady showered confetti at Draghi, the ECB President protesting ECB policies.
  • ·         On the day ECB's new premises was to open in March 18, Europeans took out protest processions decrying austerity measures.
  • ·         In Greece, as in the more afflicted parts of Europe, the leftists seem to be on the ascent and the masses have been quite restive.
  • ·         All these are indicators of resentment among the masses. Rising anxieties at the future of Europe among the youth is spilling on to the streets.
  •  

Europe today appears steadily moving into shades of oblivion. Europe's big companies like Ericsson and Nokia are no more the  great  brands they once used to be.  Italians, (remember Ariston?) once reputed for their industrial prowess is faltering between scandalous politicians and declining growth. Europe's big airlines, representative of the services industry,  have faltered; Qatar, Emirates and Etihad Airlines with their latest big spaced aircraft have given British Air, Lufthansa  and Air France a run for their money. The Japanese cars have taken over the mid-size segment threatening to leave Fiat in to probable memories of another period. The European brands that are most reputed are targeted at high net worth customers ( Mercedes Benz, BMW Louis Vuitton).  China by contrast, has become the world's workshop supplying cheap goods to an aspirant middle class. 

Europe's educational system has been unable to attract talent as US or even Canadian universities do. Except perhaps UK Universities and some European Universities like Sorbonne or Erasmus, international students do not see these academic places as first choice destinations. The 'auslander' (outsider) fear among students is real both on language and cultural divergence in Germany for example. The American Universities, by contrast are seen by the international student as great place of learning and freedom of academic thinking.

The digital era seems to have a follower not a leader in Europe. The Europeans have been unable to re-create the industrial revolution era in this age of the digitalization. Its IT companies are largely less known for break through innovation.  Countries like India had seized the opportunity while Europe which really has time zone advantage has not been so swift.

Europe has been rather non receptive and patronizing to immigration. USA has , on the contrary been a net recipient of talent. Its Universities have always welcomed innovative brains. US immigration policies have been supportive of retention of talent to assist economic growth. Parts of Europe , on the other hand, have earned a reputation of shades of 'Teutonische Arroganz' in its approach to outsiders. At best,  there is an element of patronage of the less fortunate. Having earlier been great mechanical engineers and ship builders,  Europeans had been reputed to be innovative and  many several countries have prospered as colonialists in the bygone, prosperous days. Some of the economies have built the edifice of their economies on the drain of wealth from the colonies. These colonial flow sources have been dry for over 60 years now.  Old colonies like India have risen from the embers of colonialism to take up commanding heights of the global economy while Europe has to live on past glory.

Spearheaded by China and India, the fulcrum of the World growth has now largely shifted to Asia. The central banks of Asia hold trillions of dollars and Europe in their kitty. Given the lack of cohesion in thinking and the delayed decision taking seen in Europe, Europe is no more so dominant a power on the world scene. From Iceland to Ireland to Italy there are pronounced weaknesses. Fears of a Japan like fall into prolonged recession haunts even as there is dithering over Greece for nearly three years!. To be Quantitative easing or not to be took several months to arrive at a decision. It cannot arrive at any consensus or  alternatively, a bold decision over Greece. All Europe does is to contribute to market volatility over several years! The world needs to move beyond Greece even if Europe is inefficient. Greece is too small to matter.  

Europe needs to rethink its approach to men and machines.  It can survive, like UK,  only with transatlantic support. US remains a leader who is far ahead in innovative breakthrough technology. From Coca Cola to Google to Facebook to Twitter to Intel it is US brands all the way in relevant consumer markets. The Americans are affording an opportunity to Europe to still retain relevance. Europe is still frozen in the past. Like the ostrich it has its head in the sands.


Without any risk or responsibility....



Thursday, February 26, 2015

IT Industry, India

"The Economic Survey 2014-15 says the IT and ITeS sector including Business Process Management (BPM), continues to be one of the largest employers in the country, directly employing nearly 35 lakh people. NASSCOM estimates the revenue of the IT-BPM industry at US$119 billion grew by 12 per cent in 2014-15 with export market alone making up almost $100 billion. The year witnessed hyper-growth in the technology start-up and software product landscape, India ranking as the fourth largest start-up hub in the world with over 3,100 start-ups in the country. Software products and services revenues for 2015-16 is projected to grow at 12-14 per cent. "

From Press Information Bureau, Government of India

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Indian Software industry and currency risk?

National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) has reportedly lowered its estimates for IT and back-office services exports to 12-14 per cent for the year ending March 31, 2016, as against the 13-15 per cent estimated for 2014-15.
(http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/smartbuy/tech-news/it-exports-seen-stumbling-on-geopolitical-forex-challenges/article6879293.ece?homepage=true)

While aggregate industry revenues for FY2015 are estimated at USD 146 billion, the export market is estimated at USD 100 billion,. With global slowdown and the economic upheaval in Europe and a declining euro, it may not be so good for IT companies having exposure to Europe and those who have invoiced in euro.

Indian companies who have not hedged foreign exchange receivables may be strained. Banks have to monitor  client receivables to avoid NPAs. 


Without any risk or responsibility


Thursday, January 15, 2015

Indian IT Companies will suffer in the currency volatility

If any Indian  IT companies have designated their invoices in euro currency, they are likely to take a big hit . Mumbai Stocks could be adversely affected. Any pressure on IT companies (and pharma ?) companies should pressurise bank stock too?

Views expressed without risk or responsibility 


Monday, December 15, 2014

After Russia, Iran?

The way the economy crumbles.  With oil prices headed south, the world economy looks rattled and the slide in its wake seems bent on severely hurting some of the oil producers. Indonesia Rupiah has been falling heavy too; low levels since 1998; so also Malaysian Ringitt. The South East Asians will see pressures. India cannot be so oblivious of the context and the Indian Rupee could be under renewed pressure given IT companies are affected by slowing growth and volatility in stock markets. China, led that it is by export model, is also affected adversely.