Mumbai cracks nay a carnage

Sensex down by 520 points ,Nifty down 1.6 %  metal, capital  and bank stocks are all down. It is just contagion trend with sellers all the way. Indian Rupee too was down.Losses will take weeks to recover....

This blog offers no investment advice...

Asian giants wobble - feel the Chinese cold and the American heat...

State intervention can arrest the slide sentiment for sometime but not for all time. That is why Shanghai is in a free fall.

Indian markets  has to fall in line with emerging market fears and bravado  unbacked by real economics does not help a stock market. Against the backdrop of impending rate hike by the FedReserve, emerging markets have to see a flight to quality.

Both India and China need to have structural reforms  if it is to stem the tide. Its regulators do not seem to inspire confidence. Its markets seem heavy with money tending to escape. It is not global cues alone, it is inconsistencies at home which are proving treacherous to equity holders. 

USA & JPY seem good, given the day. 






This Blog recommends or offers no investment advice. All expressions ov view are without risk or responsibility. 

China through Aussie eyes

Reserve Bank Of Australia Bulletin , June 2015

Article: Potential Growth and Rebalancing in China

Cai Fang and Ivan Roberts

Quote
"Although actual growth has periodically fluctuated above and below its estimated potential rate, the difference between the two growth rates has rarely remained large for extended periods... Extrapolating current trends, these estimates suggest that potential growth is likely to slow further in coming years." 

Unquote

Note: This blog offers no investment advice. The views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility. 

IMF suggests Bank of Japan should enhance communication...

"Directors noted that raising inflation to the 2 percent target remained challenging. They encouraged the authorities to continue to strengthen wage-price dynamics, through emphasis on wage growth in the tripartite dialogue, encouragement of risk-taking in the financial sector, and if needed, further monetary policy action. "

"In particular, they (the Directors) felt that the Bank of Japan could provide stronger guidance to markets through enhanced communication and put greater emphasis on achieving the inflation target in a stable manner."

 GDP is expected to grow at an above-potential pace this year (0.8 percent). Inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target partly due to commodity price developments  favorable wage-price dynamics,..

Source of data: IMF Release 15/352 dated 23July 2015 

Note: This blog offers no investment advice. The views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility. 

Jobless Data: US on course for rate hike...?

" In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 255,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 281,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 24, 1973 when it was 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 278,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 282,500. "


Source of Extract:U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration Washington, D.C. 20210 Release Number: USDL 15-1450-NAT

Note: This blog offers no investment advice. The views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility. 

UK retail sales drop: Has it something to do with tourists too?

"Compared with May 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry was estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. Falls were reported by predominantly food stores, other stores, household goods stores and petrol stations."

Are we seeing a hold back in spending by domestic consumers? On the back of falling industrial production, and construction data,  is there a lack of confidence?

Are Summer months not the month of the tourists?  See Table Extracted from https://www.visitbritain.org/latest-monthly-data .  Spending by tourists seem to fall. One explanatory reason could be that North Americans (who are good spenders) did not come to UK in large numbers see April 2015 data as a potential indicator.

North America(Vists in 000s)

250

-15% ↓

Inbound visitor statistics for April 2015

Visits and spend figures

Spend & Visits	April 2015		Year to date (Jan-Apr 15)		Rolling 12 months (May14-Apr 15)
		% change vs Apr 14		% change vs Jan-Apr 14		% change vs May13-Apr 14
All visits (000)	3,140	6% ↑	10,010	3% ↑	34,630	4% ↑
Spend (£m)	£1,540	1% ↑	£5,080	-7% ↓	21,490	0%

Cut Losses...Trend is your best friend.

Investors are once bitten, twice shy...
Chinese investors lost $3.8 trillion 

Apple erased  $38 Billion  on various concerns

 Australian shares plunged  over Greek crisis $35 bn. wiped off stock market 

Investors buy and hold ; they fall in love with positions. They attempt to be contrarian...

Remember, the market is too big for you to turn it around.

Trend is your best friend. 

Note: This blog offers no investment advice. The views expressed here are without any risk or responsibility