Showing posts with label Ebola. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ebola. Show all posts

Sunday, January 18, 2015

From economic to currency crisis : Africa

Fears that stalk Africa range from Ebola to Europe.
As the prices for Africa's commodities fall to worrying levels,  Africa, unheard of, unwritten about, unsung about will see its poor incomes fall further. With little public accountability and with massive doses of corruption, Africa really does not know where to turn to. Europe, its traditional purported benefactor,  is weakening and with a falling euro has to give less aid to African nations.

China, one big investor at one time, will move slow given that it has its own travails and given that expectations of benefits from African resources have not materialized.

 Countries like Ghana weighed down by ghost enrollments in Government offices and falling incomes, knock on IMF doors but are afraid to accept conditionalities may be for political reasons. Has it any option as its reserves fall?


The World Bank has predicted  that  growth in 2015 in Sub Saharan Africa will be 4.6 %.T


From stagnating  Egypt rattled right from 2011 to stricken Sierra Leone to gold and diamond studded South Africa, there is darkness creeping in. The African countries will see heavy  pressures on their currencies as their real exchangeable values fall.

Foreign Aid, can you hear me?


Views Expressed without risk or responsibility. 


   

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Economic Impact of Ebola from World Bank

World Bank on costs of Ebola

" The short-term (2014) impact on output, estimated using on-the ground data to inform revisions to sector-specific growth projections, is in the order of 2.1 percentage points (pp) of gross domestic product (GDP) in Guinea (reducing growth from 4.5 percent to 2.4 percent); 3.4 pp of GDP in Liberia (reducing growth from 5.9 percent to 2.5 percent) and 3.3 pp of GDP in Sierra Leone (reducing growth from 11.3 percent to 8.0 percent). This forgone output for these three countries corresponds to US$359 million in 2013 prices.


• The short-term fiscal impacts are also large, at US$113 million (5.1 percent of GDP) for Liberia; US$95 million (2.1 percent of GDP for Sierra Leone) and US$120 million (1.8 percent of GDP) for Guinea. These estimates are best viewed as lower-bounds. "




https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20592/9781464804380.pdf?sequence=5

Monday, October 20, 2014

Costs of Ebola

The economic costs of Ebola are grim. As the World Bank worries , IMF  would have to revise downward growth figures for Africa. There is virtual shutdown of these countries, Doing business will be a difficult prospect. Airlines will suffer losses. Worst case scenario costs may be up to 2015 are estimated at USD 32.6  billion by the World Bank. If only Africa had this type of money for growth! Europe will suffer quite a bit as it has traditional links and business with Africa.