Sunday, November 15, 2015

Why Paris attacks should not affect markets adversely on Monday:

There appears to be no reason to panic. There may not  even be a reason to fly to safety. In an economy which appears to be sluggish and staring at deflation, military and state armed forces' preparations are good news. The enormity of the terrorist attack and the rapidity and wide area of terrorist operations  re-emphasize the need for greater intelligence sharing and ultra-modernization of the European  armed forces. With the need to be a step ahead of terrorist, the space to fill in  implies potential  large scale governmental spending on radical and immediate rearming and also on research in the area of self preservation.  France has already declared an emergency. So there cannot be fiscal constraints in  defending the nation. Ground efforts at coordinated military action will intensify. All these movements mean fiscal spending. 

Any big time spending is an impetus to a slow European economy. So there is a possibility of an investment enhancement across Europe. Oil prices must also  see a rise owing to possible disruption in supplies in case of an escalation.  Globally, such individual attacks on markets  have only limited impact on market. Markets get back faster than expected. 

Coordinated intelligence gathering and preparations for armed offensives are good in so far as there is a fiscal stimulus and an enhanced aggregate demand.  

In any dip, it is a good time to buy. US assets may see an inflow and a possible appreciation of the Dollar in the initial trades. Commodities may see some respite from a downward trend. 

The views  expressed here are without any risk or responsibility.
This blog recommends no investment. 


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