According to the Government of
India, the Indian economy is likely to grow by 7-7.5 percent in the fiscal year
ending March 2016, much lower than an 8.1-8.5 percent growth estimated earlier.
India has everything: natural resources
of a satisfactory order, a burgeoning, educated middle class, a teeming
population which is both a wage lowering workforce and an opportunity for a
market, constitution bestowed democracy, a free press, some standards in education,
legacy of commercial English, active stock
markets and a bevy of regulators who make repetitive speeches in some of the
most fashionable jargon. Yet it has had to scale down growth. amidst all
bravado of being an economic powerhouse, and confess to a slower than
anticipated growth rate.
What is lacking
in Asia's third largest economy?
Narayanamurthy, founder of
Infosys, pointed to the Indian weakness
of speaking more than due. Good speeches do not translate to actions unless there are key performance indicators for all decision takers. India's politicians, bureaucrats and managers love
to hear their own voices but do not take accountability. Long speeches, often repetitive but hesitant in
action seem to be an effort at getting into the annals of history. Regulators are good examples. One will find variants of speeches on non
performing assets from the banking supervisor but the scourge of NPA continues, unabated, a python
swallowing up advances at a rapid pace. Stressed assets are at double figures.
Meetings are held, long evasive notes are recorded. Meetings seem to be the key
to any problem to bureaucrats and bankers; and Committees are at the call of
the establishment. Retired personnel continue to hold key positions or chair committees post- 60 on a
variety of Committees enjoying privileges at the cost of the unemployed and the
economically depressed.
The British left India geographically divided;
but Indians scar themselves in self inflicted sociological distances that have them collectively and separately adrift.
From caste to tribe to religion, Indians have it all within their masochism
driven psyche: differentiators of another retrogressive type. The lunacy of the
past seems to come back in violent fits. Development needs collective and consensual support. Perched at different levels, Indian intelligentsia arrogates solutions and aggravate the prevalent confusions and tensions. The insincere tyranny of the lucky few seem to hold back development.
Democracy substituted one provincial
chief for several self seeking and mutually mongering chieftains donning the garb of servant politicians. Each one is
driven by a primeval garnering effort and has a tribal, primitive constituency.
The insensate bickering over petty
fiefdoms and rental properties hold up important legislations that are crucial for
growth. Even the IMF Chief says these legislations might help. The politicians, however, will not heed. National interests are
relegated in blatant animal instincts for self preservation.
Since the 1970s, leaders seek
financial inclusion in diverse terminologies (lead bank scheme, priority sector lending,
differential lending etc) and banks seek one scheme after another yet there are
usurious interest rates. Newspapers publish that Rs. 5,000 loans become Rs. 100,000 in just one year in the South East Indian
state of Andhra. Women who are defaulters are reportedly sexually harassed in this East Indian state. Shadow banking exists with money-lenders
extracting 20-30 per cent per annum and often at even higher rates. This is
even as the Prime Minister's 'Jan Dhan Yojana' a successful scheme for financial
inclusion has mobilised Rs.25000 crores ( 100 crores= 1 billion) in about one
year. However banks, filled with white collar intelligentsia and civil administrators
of state government who lord over almost everything crowd out efficiency. The
financially weak of every social strata are exploited by shadow bankers. The regulators come after the
event. Regulators sneak their way in to the director boards of banks. Credit from the formal sector seems
to have dried up with banks insistent on Cibil credit scores. As there are
reportedly millions of defaulters, micro-finance institutions also are
constrained to look away. The credit
culture is rampantly and demonstratively weak. The total stressed assets (i.e.,
NPAs plus Restructured Assets) as on March 2015 were 11.06 per cent of gross
advances and this is mostly with the organized sector. The informal poor
continue to wait for a trickledown theory that seems to refuse to come calling
by.
So India needs some soul search;
not just blame global weaknesses or rains. It is, as M J Akbar said several decades
ago a 'siege within'.
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