Saturday, December 13, 2014

Gcc economies and the paradox of a dollar peg

Gcc countries are seeing the oil prices fall like sad and mad. So the Government revenues are seriously constrained by falling  inward flows. Except Kuwait,  the GCC countries have their currency pegged to the US  dollar. As dollar increases in international markets, their- GCC household purchasing power goes up and real incomes go up because of appreciation.  So even as national income falls the households experience counter party values rising as their pegged currency rises on the back of dollar. They import more. This affects the trade figures. Imports are cheap and so marginal propensity to consume more. You import and consume more even as national incomes fall. The paradox of a peg. 

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