Sunday, December 14, 2014

The insignificance of being OPEC...

OPEC's key official, addressing a news conference  in Dubai, stated that oil price fall was not in keeping with the fundamentals.   (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/12/14/us-opec-oil-badri-idINKBN0JS06F20141214). 

He is not powerful enough to talk up the oil price. With Saudi Arabian strategy for a supposed market share, not going anywhere; and with Chinese slow down, oil prices have nothing to shield it from further falls. The West will also be happy to see the pressures on a defiant Russia. The Saudi lead in not prescribing a cut, also appears  indirectly  aimed at Iran as the latter  country will reel under the price fall; s Saudi Arabia has quite a large quantum of national reserves as a cushion; Iran does not have much staying power. Given the desperation of the non- reserve holding oil producers, to maintain revenues,  there will be quite a glut in the market in the coming week. Imagine Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and similar!

The Japanese election results surprise none; it had already been factored in by the markets. The unpleasant surprise is the lower than usual turnout, which ignites cynicism in some measure and dampens Abenomics. So the results are not potent enough to trigger a move up.

It looks set of short on oil.


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