Monetary Authority of Singapore has released its report today which includes an international outlook. Some excerpts to compare India and China.
|
|
Q1 2015
|
Q2 2015
|
2014
|
2015F
|
2016F
|
|
China
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
6.8
|
6.5
|
|
India**
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
6.9
|
7.3
|
7.5
|
** Refers to fiscal year ending March.
- Private consumption, the main driver of the expansion in Q2, contributed 4.3% points to headline growth
- The effects of earlier monetary easing and lower oil prices.
- GFCF also ratcheted up in tandem with the government’s infrastructure push, recording a 4.9% y-o-y increase.
- Government expenditure added to growth in Q2 with a 1.2% expansion.
- The fuller pass-through to lending rates would be impeded by banks’ weak balance sheets, which remain saddled with non-performing loans.
- Meanwhile, foreign investors have increased their investment in India, signalling rising confidence in the economy. Foreign direct investment inflows amounted to US$19.4 billion year-to-date in June—a 29.5% improvement over the same period last year.
- In particular, the computer software, automobile and construction sectors saw a discernible uptick in investment flows. All in, India’s GDP growth is expected to increase to 7.5% in FY2016, from 7.3% in FY2015, making it the fastest growing economy in the region.
China
- In Q2 2015, China’s economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y, on par with the previous quarter’s performance.
- Headline growth in the second quarter held up on account of a 17.5% y-o-y year-to-date surge in financial services value added, attributable to increased brokerage activity, as the stock market boomed in Q2. Meanwhile
- Exports and imports contracted.
- Growth slackened in secondary industries, with weaker expansions recorded by the manufacturing and construction sectors.
- Against a backdrop of substantial industrial slack and subdued real estate construction activity, fixed asset investment (FAI) rose by a slower 11.4% y-o-y year-to-date in Q2, down from 13.5% the quarter before.
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