Fear is the key...

Emerging markets may not hold. 
As China triggers concern, competitive devaluation and benign depreciation may be the policy of central bankers.
There are no macho currencies. 
Just the herd instinct of currency sheep crossing over to a difficult week.
Countries that are relatively China tagged such as Australia and Singapore should see greater volatility. Countries like Vietnam will have to cope with a cheaper China competition. 
India's Make In India might see a lag. 
Asia which is the new power house is stalling and that is not a positive sign for the world economy.

Sell?
Or Sell and buy?
For the non- technical investor, it may be good time to stay out and watch,


Views expressed are without any risk or responsibility. This blog recommends no investment decision. 

One cannot expect gold to rise even as oil falls!!!

• Gold and oil are normally positively correlated.  More recent talk of divergence does not have historic backing. 
• Commodities' markets  should move together.
• If stock markets collapse, there is a wealth effect and there cannot be a flight to gold as is anticipated. 
• If there are are losses in one market, there will be sales of other assets to recoup losses.
• With deflation staring (in the event of bearish trends) gold loses attractiveness. 
• It is a different story if US  interest rates are hiked and inflations looks likely to rear. 
• The international scenario may hold the Fed's hands.
• Political imbroglio in Greece adds to European woes.
• If the Government of India cannot come out with a marketable plan for ensuring the transfer of gold holdings to banks (as is proposed) then there could be some stimulus for international gold.  The Indian banks seem  reluctant to offer more than 0.75 % interest to gold bonds. 
• If the Indian growth rate falls, following China, that would imply less purchasing power. 
• The Chinese stock market falls may have hit local Chinese hard given that 80 to 85 % of stock holders are nationals. 
• Against such a scenario, any move up in gold prices does not necessarily reflect real moves but expectations.
• If the Indian festive season picks up in October- November and if the Fed moves rates up, there could be a rebound of gold. Until then  any investor has to be cautious. 

This blog does not recommend any investment. This is only an academic blog without any risk or responsibility to the blog's author.